Gas use down: No reward as state's drivers consume less

Congratulations, California motorists: You cut gasoline consumption in 2005 and 2006 for the first time in a dozen years.

Your reward?

Current gas prices that are only 3 cents short of the all-time high last May when the state average hit $3.38 a gallon, according to AAA.

"It's frustrating," said Sean Comey, spokesman for AAA of Northern California. Consumers are "making an effort to conserve and being rewarded with record or near-record prices," he said.

In San Francisco, the highest-priced gasoline market tracked by AAA, pump prices hit a record $3.475 for a gallon of regular Sunday and inched down to $3.47 Monday.

Santa Rosa was at an average $3.30 a gallon Monday, slightly below the state average of $3.35. Santa Rosa's all-time high was $3.33 last May.

Experts differed on whether California's slightly lowered appetite for gas was significant. Consumption was down 0.5 percent last year and off 0.1 percent in 2005, both compared to the previous year, according to the state Board of Equalization.

Not since 1991 and 1992 had the Golden State posted a drop in consumption, when state and federal gas tax rates were increased.

"What we're seeing is potentially the beginning of a downward trend," said Betty T. Yee of San Francisco, Board of Equalization chairwoman.

The downward trend in a state that guzzles nearly 16 billion gallons of gasoline annually is "novel for California," she said.

UC Davis economist Christopher Knittel was less sanguine.

"If it takes a 15 percent price increase to make us cut back less than 1 percent, I think we're still in trouble," Knittel said. If the price of any other commodity rose 15 percent, "we would see much larger changes."

No one knows the "tipping point," the gas price at which consumers would balk, demand would fall and prices drop, as well.

State Energy Commission spokeswoman Suzanne Garfield staked out the middle ground on the slight sag in consumption: "It's hard to know at this point. It could be just one of those blips."

State officials and energy industry-watchers are awaiting gas consumption reports for the first three months of 2007 to see if the downward trend continues.

California gas prices opened the year at $2.61 a gallon of regular and since have risen 27 percent to $3.32, according to the Energy Commission. The commission's mark is 3 cents below AAA's figure, based on different survey information.

Consumers haven't made major changes so far this decade, Knittel said, noting the average fuel economy for new cars sold since 2001 has remained essentially flat.

During a similar gas price spike in the late 1970s, consumers switched to more efficient cars, he said.

"If we were all buying Priuses, our response to higher (gas) prices would be much larger," Knittel said.

But AAA's Comey said the gas consumption cut, although slight, may signal the start of a consumer revolt.

"It may be just the leading edge of the avalanche," he said.

Most people can't make major changes, such as buying an expensive new hybrid vehicle, as a quick response to price spikes, Comey said.

The future of gas consumption probably depends on the public's expectation, Garfield said. "If people feel the price (of gasoline) will drop again, they're not going to change their behavior."

You can reach Staff Writer Guy Kovner at 521-5457 or guy.kovner@pressdemocrat.com.