Sonoma State University's freshman enrollment has fallen short by 154 students, a downturn that means SSU will lose about $800,000 and has prompted temporary closure of two residence halls.
The shortfall coincides with pressure for the 23-campus California State University system to enroll more students, and for Sonoma State, which freshmen have clamored to get into, to absorb a higher-than-average share of that growth.
"It was really a miscalculation on our part, not a reflection on the state of demand," said Eduardo Ochoa, provost and vice president for academic affairs. "We still have many more students applying than we're able to accommodate."
SSU sent out 7,000 acceptance offers to the 10,000 high school graduates who applied for 1,200 available slots this fall. But as classes began in August, only 1,058 first-time students had enrolled, SSU records show. By this week, that number had slipped to 1,046.
The freshman enrollment is the lowest since 2001, when 1,039 students were in the entering class.
Ochoa and fellow SSU administrators attributed the enrollment deficit to increased competition from University of California campuses, while SSU simultaneously raised its admissions standards to require higher grade point averages or SAT scores.
Knowing the demand from high school seniors far exceeded its 1,200 first-time freshmen capacity, SSU set the bar higher to compensate, Ochoa said. SSU tightened its standards during a spring when the UC offered admissions to a record number of freshmen, 50,017 Californians, including 5,958 who received offers from its new Merced campus. One year earlier, budget cuts forced thousands of UC hopefuls to go elsewhere.
In a marketplace where the average UC applicant applied to three to four schools, "we didn't overbook enough," Ochoa said. "We just kind of got blindsided by a change in the environment just as we were restricting admissions ourselves."
To consolidate its residence hall vacancies, save on utilities and allow for maintenance and repairs, the university has closed Chenin Blanc and Chardonnay halls, which each houses 50 students.
Since 90 percent of freshmen live on campus, SSU expected to house 1,125 of them this year, not the 920 who now live there. Tim Tiemens, director of housing, said deviations up or down in the number of incoming freshmen are common.
"Some years ... we end up with freshmen on a waiting list (for housing). That's not good, either," said Tiemens, a 24-year veteran. But, he added, "I can't recall that we've been this amount short before."
As a result of the lower freshman enrollment, SSU will not receive about $900,000 in housing revenue, $350,000 that would have been paid for dining services and $550,000 in state university fees, said Larry Furukawa-Schlereth, SSU vice president of finance and administration.
He explained that the net loss would be in the $750,000 to $800,000 range because food and operating expenses also would be reduced.
He said "very, very modest" or no reductions in instructional dollars will result. SSU officials said they remain on track to enroll the equivalent of 6,904 full-time students, or an estimated head count of 8,000, a critical target because it determines state funding.
In addition, the students currently attending SSU are taking larger average course loads than last fall, another variable that helps the university maintain funding despite the drop in incoming freshmen.
To many faculty leaders, the shortfall is the latest financial challenge that threatens to alter class sizes, course selection, student/faculty ratios and instructors' workloads.
"I believe that in the spring there will be larger classes and fewer options" for students, said Andy Merrifield, president of the SSU faculty union. "Every year there is a financial crisis that affects the students negatively, either because they have a smaller selection of classes or bigger sections."
University officials said they are taking steps to minimize the impact of the shortfall and to prevent a recurrence. Those extra efforts include recruiting mid-year transfer students, establishing a waiting list for applicants and courting the qualified students who otherwise might pick UC Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz or Davis.
An Oct. 8 open house on campus presents another recruiting opportunity.
"We're going to be a little bit more aggressive," said Gustavo Flores, SSU director of admissions. "If we see a drop in fall 2006 applicants, I would be very concerned. Right now there is no indication of that."
How the shortfall may influence day-to-day operations at SSU in the spring remains to be seen. Ochoa said he is looking to put out a spring course schedule that will support sustained enrollment.
"If we don't maintain enrollment," Ochoa said, "the money for growth doesn't come to the campus."
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