Latino growth may challenge Sonoma County

The Latino population continues to grow in Sonoma County while the white population decreases, a trend that carries long-term implications in education and employment.

This demographic shift, highlighted in population estimates released by the Census Bureau today, occurs on the eve of what some are calling the gray tsunami of baby boomers nearing retirement age.

With most of the county's population growth taking place among Latinos, local officials are worried that the education attainment gap plaguing Latinos will make it more difficult to fill jobs vacated by retiring baby boomers.

"It's going to be very important to prepare for that. The primary group that's coming behind (baby boomers) will be Hispanics," said Ben Stone, executive director of the Sonoma County Economic Development Board.

"If we don't, we'll see a decline in our standard of living in Sonoma County," Stone said. "Businesses will either leave this area or out-source the work to an area where they can get it done."

The Census estimates show the number of Latino residents in Sonoma County increased 3.7 percent -- 1,869 people -- from 2006 to 2007, the latest figures available. The agency estimates there are currently 104,862 Latinos in the county, up more than 30 percent from the 80,619 Latino residents living in the county at the start of the decade.

At the same time, the number of white residents dropped from 2006 to 2007 by 0.7 percent, or 2,250 people. From 2000 to 2007, the county's white population has declined 7.2 percent to 320,305 people.

The Census Bureau's estimates are similar to population projections by the California Department of Finance, which has calculated that since 2000 the county's Latino population increased by 35 percent, while the white population declined by 4.2 percent.

Demographers say the drop in the non-Latino white population is driven by a low birth rate that fails to make up for the thousands of whites who die each year. The growth in the Latino population is driven by a young population that has a low death rate and a stable birth rate.

Bill Schooling, a demographer for the California Department of Finance, said increases in life expectancy at birth are dwarfed by low fertility rates and a large aging population among white residents.

Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto, said that even if the local economy continues to be slow in the coming years, retiring baby boomers are likely to create many job opportunities for locals.

"In that sense the data tell the story that we are entering a period of both challenge and opportunity . . . as baby boomers retire and are replaced increasingly by Latino and Asian immigrants and their children and grandchildren," he said.

When Sonoma County Schools chief Carl Wong took the job in 1997, the local school population had the same demographics as the county's current overall population. Back then, the Latino student population was 22 percent of the total student population. Latinos make up 22.6 percent of the county's total population.

"Now the Hispanic enrollment is at 34 percent," said Wong, adding that the Latino population has increased year-to-year by about 1 percent, while the white student population has declined by almost the same percentage.

Wong said white students currently make up 54 percent of local public school pupils; Asians, which includes Pacific Islanders and Filipinos, are 5 percent; and African Americans are 2 percent.

"I've always said school enrollment is a leading indicator of community demographics and diversity," Wong said. "The future of Sonoma County is sitting in today's classrooms."

Wong said the education challenges facing Latino students are illustrated by three statistics:

Two thirds of Latino students are currently classified as not being proficient in English.

Seventy-eight percent of white freshman ninth-graders complete high school in four years. Sixty-two percent of Latino freshman complete high school in four years.

Forty-one percent of white high school grads have taken the required coursework to qualify for University of California or California State University schools, compared with 18 percent for Latinos.

Wong said initiatives such as the county's tutoring program, Aiming High, now in its fourth year, are what's needed to help narrow the achievement gap between Latino English learners and the general student population.

Latino students need to be challenged more, said Susan Moore, a member of the board of directors of Roseland University Prep, which graduated 69 seniors this year. Roseland's Class of 2008 numbered 78 freshmen four years ago.

"We need to start thinking about putting all of our ninth-graders into college preparatory courses and make the assumption that they are college material," Moore said.

Francisco Quintero, who is among this year's Roseland University Prep graduates, is scheduled to begin classes at Sonoma State University this fall.

Quintero, 18, is planning to study music technology and graphic design. He dreams of becoming the kind of music mogul that gives back to his community.

But behind that dream is an unshakable goal of earning a bachelor's degree.

"At least with a bachelor's degree I can make a lot more money than without having it," he said. "I don't want it to be in vain. I also don't want to have to work every day eight hours and all of a sudden, when rent comes, I'm only left with $20 in my pocket."

News researcher Michele Van Hoeck contributed to this report.