49ers' weekly drama runs full spectrum

<p>News item: Mike Nolan is NOT — I repeat NOT — one of the top-three most likely coaches to get the ax before this NFL season ends. As crazy as this seems, Lane Kiffin isn’t in first place in the getting-the-boot department, either, even though his owner hates him. For more on the odds of coaches getting fired, go to my blog, the Cohn Zohn.</p><p>I bring all this up because, after the season-opener flop, Nolan’s chances of lasting the entire season didn’t seem so hot. And that’s the point. The NFL season is the most dramatic of any sport going. Each week feels like preparing for a playoff game, each week contains an entire world, and reputations rise and fall on the basis of one game. The NFL is stark and exhilarating and profound.</p><p>Which brings us to today, Lions at 49ers. We will know so much in a few hours, so much more than now. Sure, we’ll know who is hurt and can’t play for a while. But that’s mundane compared to the real things we’ll learn. So, let’s take this slowly.</p><p>If the Niners win, they’ll be on a streak of two in a row and counting. And the writers and commentators like me will say the 49ers have stabilized and are a steadily improving outfit. Columnists like me undoubtedly will praise offensive coordinator Mike Martz because quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan undoubtedly will have a good game if the 49ers win. The standard line will be something like: Martz brought to life the moribund San Francisco offense (true) and discovered in the junk pile, as he did before, a hidden gem of a QB (true).</p><p>Most important, everyone will praise Nolan for having the foresight and guts to employ a strong personality and potential rival like Martz and, even more important, for doing the subtle, intangible things a wise-head coach must do to create a winner.</p><p>And face it, the Niners should win today. Detroit is a bad team, gave up 82 points its first two games. The 49ers should go wild against that defense.</p><p>What if the 49ers lose? Please don’t think I’m being negative or conclude I want the Niners to lose. I am examining the possibilities — it’s my job to examine the possibilities. Well, if the Niners lose, it will be called a “bad loss” as opposed to a regular garden-variety loss. A bad loss is when you go down to a bad team, a clearly inferior team. A bad loss is when you disgrace yourself. Hang in there with me on this.</p><p>After a bad loss, all hell breaks loose. If the Niners lose today, everything will be called into question all over again. I’m saying, depending on whether they win or lose, the world will be different for the 49ers.</p><p>If they lose, there will be quarterback sacks and quarterback fumbles. Believe me, there will be sacks and fumbles. And critics like me will say Martz’s offense is too wide open and risky, and he never cared about the safety of his quarterback, and O’Sullivan still has not learned pocket presence and how to sense the defensive pressure and how to hold onto the freaking ball.</p><p>And there will be questions about the 49er defense which, until now, has seemed pretty reliable — one of those bend-but-don’t-break defenses. There will be hard questions. And mostly there will be questions about Nolan yet again.</p><p>You know what they’ll be. How come his team wasn’t ready for a bunch of knuckleheads like the Lions? Did he see this disaster coming? Could he have prepared the Niners better? And all the questions, many asked in the postgame news conference with Nolan’s wife, Kathy, standing right there, will imply the deep worry that Nolan isn’t the right man, is in over his head, is merely a defensive coordinator who could not ascend to the level of head guy.</p><p>And if the Niners lose, the odds for Nolan getting fired could change and he may, in fact, become one of the top-three candidates for the early-season ax. Lots of things get defined this afternoon, at least for a week.</p><p>For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at 521-5486 or lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.</p>