Sonoma County job growth to be led by service sector

Looking for a job with a future?

Think nursing, accounting, sales, software engineer, electrician or carpenter, to name a few.

Forget file clerk, word processor, news reporter, switchboard operator, manufacturing assembler or computer programmer.

That's the conclusion from a state forecast of Sonoma County's job market in 2014. Service jobs will have the most openings, and they'll be among the fastest-growing occupations in the future, according to the study by the Employment Development Department.

In an age of outsourcing, offshoring and automation, traditional service jobs will survive, said Ben Stone, director of Sonoma County's Economic Development Board.

"You're still going to need a plumber," he said. "That can't be outsourced or automated."

Beware of occupations that technology can make obsolete, Stone said. "Any job that can be automated will be phased out," he said.

Manufacturing jobs are disappearing as computer-controlled machines replace humans on factory floors. Entry-level technology jobs such as programmers and tech support are moving to countries with lower labor costs.

Digital communications and record-keeping will make other jobs obsolete. The demand for file clerks and office mail clerks will drop about 40 percent by 2014, according to the state.

Sonoma County's aging population will have a strong influence on future careers, said Robert Eyler, a Sonoma State University economics professor who heads SSU's Center for Regional Economic Analysis.

"There's going to be high demand for residential health care," he said. Nurses, doctors, medical assistants and alternative health practitioners will be among the high-growth occupations, Eyler said.

"It's very difficult to outsource those kinds of jobs," he said.

The need for registered nurses in Sonoma County will have grown 22 percent between 2004 and 2014, according to the state. It will have created 1,380 openings, including new jobs and replacements.

Nursing is among the best-paid of the growth occupations, with a 2006 median hourly wage of $33.58 in Sonoma County, state figures show.

The demand for home health aides will grow by 39 percent, and medical assistant jobs will jump 27 percent. Those jobs pay median hourly wages of $9.45 and $16.12 respectively.

Other fast-growing occupations are accountant, software engineer, network systems analyst, manufacturing sales representative, attorney, paralegal/legal assistant and veterinary assistant/technician.

There also will be high demand for construction and repair jobs, including carpenters, roofers, cement masons, plumbers, sheet metal workers, tile setters and electricians.

While new construction is expected to slow in the future, there will be more need for remodeling and repair, Eyler said.

Sonoma County will continue to support technology jobs, he said, but the focus will be on research and development, not production.

"It's difficult to imagine a lot of new manufacturing," Eyler said.

While telecommunication and biotech will continue to provide jobs, green technology could become an important contributor over the next 10 years, he said.

The state's job forecast isn't the only attempt to predict the future of employment in Sonoma County.

Moody's Economy.com, which tracks business trends for the Economic Development Board, found specialized services will generate most of the county's job growth over the next 10 years.

"Creative professional" occupations -- engineering, architecture, legal services, accounting, scientific research, computer design, digital media, technical consulting and other services -- will increase 4 percent a year over the next decade, according to Moody's.

Employment in health care, tourism, wealth management, wholesale trade, construction and technology also will enjoy annual growth, Moody's said.

Regardless of the forecasts, job seekers must be prepared for change, said Stone.

"The key is being able to adapt," he said. "People must learn how to learn."

You can reach Staff Writer Steve Hart at 521-5205 or steve.hart@pressdemocrat.com.