Is the time right for rail?

<p>It's either SMART or a waste of money.</p><p>Proponents and critics differ -- dramatically so -- on whether the $450 million Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit project, a 70-mile commuter rail line from Cloverdale to Larkspur, is a sound investment.</p><p>On Nov. 4, voters in Sonoma and Marin counties will give SMART a red or green light via Measure Q, a quarter-cent sales tax that would help pay for the train, reaping an estimated $890 million over 20 years.</p><p>The tax needs two-thirds approval, which it narrowly missed in 2006. Measure Q is a revival of the 2006 campaign, with the same protagonists and essentially the same project at stake -- but with one big difference. The economy was flourishing two years ago, while today the North Coast is mired in an economic slump.</p><p>High voter turnout in the two counties, where typically train-friendly Democrats vastly outnumber registered Republican voters, may help pass the measure this year, political analysts said.</p><p>The wild card is whether the downturn will depress the vote for a new tax.</p><p>Measure Q "may be the one exception," said Brian Sobel, a Petaluma political consultant, because SMART is well-known to voters and may be seen as "an investment in the future."</p><p>Polling by the North Bay Transportation Alliance, the Yes on Q campaign organization, indicates the weak economy is not souring the tax measure's prospects.</p><p>A poll about 10 days ago found 73 percent of Sonoma and Marin voters in favor of SMART, hardly changed from the 74 percent support in a poll conducted in late May to early June, said Cynthia Murray of Petaluma, co-chair of the alliance.</p><p>"We were relieved to see that," Murray said Wednesday.</p><p>In 2006, 70 percent of Sonoma voters said "yes" to the train tax. But a 57.5 percent assent in Marin pulled the two-county total down to about 65 percent, just 1.4 percent short of the mark.</p><p>The commuter trains will "give people an economic way to get around," Murray said. "We have to figure out a way not to drive on the freeway," she said, noting that Highway 101 is the Bay Area's fourth most congested corridor.</p><p>Mike Arnold of Novato, a leader of the North Bay Citizens for Effective Transportation, the No on Q group, said that SMART "just doesn't make a lot of sense."</p><p>"There are a lot better ways to spend $800 million," Arnold said, contending that he is not anti-train, but favors an expanded bus system instead. "That's been our point all along," he said.</p><p>At the heart of the dispute are SMART's forecasts that the diesel-powered trains will take 5,300 car trips off the freeway and eliminate 124,000 pounds of greenhouse gas emissions per day.</p><p>"She tries to make the numbers look good; we try to make the numbers look bad," Arnold said at forum Wednesday sponsored by the Leadership Santa Rosa Alumni Association and attended by about 60 people.</p><p>SMART won't make a dent on traffic congestion or the fight against global warming, Arnold said. The train won't pay off simply because there is no critical mass of housing or job centers along the route.</p><p>"Doing nothing is not an option," Murray said, calling SMART the "spine" of an alternative transportation network for the North Bay.</p><p>The 5,300 daily trip estimate, SMART officials say, was calculated when gasoline cost $1.60 a gallon, half the current price.</p><p>Nearly everyone attending Wednesday's forum indicated, by a show of hands, they had already voted or made up their minds about SMART.</p><p>Environmentalists are divided over the train.</p><p>The Marin Conservation League is opposed, as it was in 2006. "The environmental benefits are not commensurate with the cost of the system," said Roger Roberts, the league's second vice president.</p><p>Ernie Carpenter of Sebastopol, a former Sonoma County supervisor, said the train "doesn't take enough cars off the road." The project is also "growth-inducing," he said, triggering development of "transit villages" along the 70-mile line.</p><p>A contrary view was offered by Denny Rosatti, executive director of Sonoma County Conservation Action. He said that SMART will focus development within cities, where it belongs. The county has adequate policies, including urban growth boundaries and community separators, to prevent rampant development, he said.</p><p>Rosatti serves as a co-chair of the Yes on Q's Sonoma County Committee, along with Lisa Wittke Schaffner, mayor of Healdsburg and executive director of the pro-business Sonoma County Alliance.</p><p>"Strange bedfellows," Murray said, describing the business and green collaboration on Measure Q.</p><p>The Sierra Club's Sonoma and Marin groups took no position on SMART.</p><p>The Santa Rosa City Council stood behind SMART in July, dropping plans to put its own quarter-cent sales tax on the Nov. 4 ballot, even though it would offset about $7 million in budget cuts.</p><p>"Santa Rosa is making a gesture," Mayor John Sawyer said at the time, noting that the SMART train "could be at risk" with two tax measures on the ballot.</p><p>Plans for a 5.5-acre development around the SMART station at Railroad Square are still in the works.</p><p>SMART owns the entire railroad right-of-way, an asset that Murray said is worth $1 billion and is "going to waste right now."</p><p>If the tax measure fails next month, she said, "we may never have the chance for green transportation solutions."</p><p>If it fails, Arnold said, "we've had enough debate over rail." He would start work, he said, on a sales tax measure to put more buses on the road.</p><p>You can reach Staff Writer Guy Kovner at 521-5457 or guy.kovner@pressdemocrat.com.</p>