Maybe this time Smith will shine

It was that fourth quarter, back in Seattle, on Dec. 14, 2006, which provides the hope that Alex Smith is not a waste of time. What he did in that fourth quarter is the only reason, the ONLY reason why, when Smith on Tuesday spoke for the first time in training camp, he still was taken seriously.

A quarterback with a 63.5 career passer rating who has 12 more interceptions than touchdowns (31-to-19) in three years, that quarterback who missed the 2008 season after shoulder surgery, that quarterback who hasn’t played in a NFL game in 20 months, that guy normally wouldn’t rate, to pardon the pun, a passing interest.

But the cameras were whirling and the notebooks were filling up when Smith said Tuesday, “Mentally I have come a long way ... I have learned a lot ... the more you stay around the game the more you grasp.”

Those are typical pro football bromides and would be dismissed as such except for this: It’s coming from the first overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft who is scrambling to save his football career and from being labeled as one of the biggest busts in league history.

So we wanted to know if his right arm was fine and it was: “Best since I have been here.”

We wanted to know if this is the training camp that makes Smith’s career or breaks it: “None of them have been this big.”

We wanted to know what the 49er fans will see differently in Smith than what they saw in the three years he played: “An all-around better player. A better decision-maker.”

We also wanted to know, at this point, the unanswerable: Alex, do you have any more games in you like that Seahawk one in 2006?

As the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. So maybe Smith was just lucky, an accident as it were, when he accounted for three fourth quarter touchdowns in Seattle. Maybe it was a fluke when Smith ran 18 yards for a touchdown and threw touchdowns of eight yards to Vernon Davis and 20 yards to Frank Gore. Maybe it was a bursting sunspot, quickly receding, when Smith accumulated for 196 yards total offense in that fourth quarter, Smith leading San Francisco to a come-from-behind victory.

Maybe it was just our eyes and memories deceiving us but we felt it back then nonetheless. That’s the way Joe Montana and Steve Young used to do it around here. That’s why Smith was drafted before anyone else in 2005, to do the impossible, to be another Montana and Young. Instead Smith has done the possible, the common, playing substandard quarterback. Yes, Jeff George is right, 20 NFL teams need a good quarterback.

With all due respects to Shaun Hill, San Francisco will be one of them if Smith doesn’t work out.

“I have thrown the ball all summer,” Smith said, “and the ball has come out (of his throwing hand) effortlessly.”

It is one of Smith’s greatest attributes that he is as unfailingly honest as he is polite. When a quarterback or a baseball pitcher undergoes shoulder surgery, tentativeness is as part of the rehabilitation process as rebuilding arm strength. Is Smith still a little tweaky about his arm? He didn’t shy away from the question.

“I’d be lying if I said it (doubt) doesn’t creep into my mind,” Smith said. “But I think I’m close.”

Smith knows he can’t clear his career from the dumpster if he’s any less than 100 percent physically and mentally. So the smart scenario for him, at this point, is for coach Mike Singletary to begin the season with Hill the starter and continue to build Smith’s confidence.

Then when Hill falters during the season, and he will, Smith replaces him with much less expectations. Because if Smith begins the season as a starter, the pressure will be enormous on him, the room for error minimal, the 49er fans less forgiving than ever, not the best situation for a guy who hasn’t been in a NFL game in 20 months.

“I don’t know,” said Singletary about when he’ll decide his starter. “The target? Maybe the third game of the pre-season.”

Maybe. That’s the state of the 49er quarterback situation. Maybe. Maybe Hill. Maybe Smith. Maybe good. Maybe bad. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. A football team built on “maybe” as its starting quarterback is not built on bedrock.

And it’s not like Singletary is choosing between an aging Montana and a much younger Young.

“I think Alex and I both would prefer the decision to be made earlier,” Hill said.

Ah, but it is what it is and that doesn’t sound like much except for a hidden truth.

No one around here expects Shaun Hill to save the 49ers.

And don’t think for a second Alex Smith is unaware of that.

For more on North Bay sports go to Bob Padecky’s blog at padecky.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Bob Padecky at 521-5223 or bob.padecky@pressdemocrat.com