Taking it to the house

The following article is republished from Wine Country Real Estate, a special advertising section of The Press Democrat.

The Super Bowl is upon us again. As we anticipate this clash of titans, will we witness a competitive battle or a complete domination of an opponent? Odds makers, sportscasters and, for that matter, your friends will all be weighing in on their predictions backed up with their rational or irrational reasons of why a particular outcome is obvious. Will we rejoice in the game or, more importantly, those we choose to share our experience with? The annual coming together of family and friends for this festival of football fantasy is just that, but agreeably so, most of us anticipate the time we get to share with those we hold close as we act silly, laugh hard and sometimes even shed a tear. The great freedom we enjoy is only here due to many a great sacrifice made over the years by some we know, but by most we don't. In trying to make savvy decisions in the game of real estate you will need to sort out the facts from fiction, the players from the game and the emotion from the event.

Understanding inventory trends in Sonoma County submarkets may fill the void left by macro analysis of the nation, state, and region as you remember, in the details lies your answers. According to BAREIS MLS, there were exactly 463 single-family homes for sale as 2014 closed out, 145 of which were new to the market. Sonoma County saw 253 units receive accepted offers during the month while 367 homes formally traded hands, leaving the county with a months' supply of inventory (MSI) of 1.3 – good macro information. MSI is the metric that indicates the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sales. An MSI ranging from 4.0 to 6.0 is generally indicative of a balanced market, with lower numbers increasingly favoring sellers and vice versa.

Getting down to the details in the town of Sonoma, which submarket includes the hamlets of Kenwood and Glen Ellen, there were 60 homes reported for sale as December came to a close – 25 percent more than the same period a year ago. This region saw the addition of only 15 new properties during the month as buyers moved forward on contracting with sellers on 20 new purchases while 44 homes formally traded ownership. Inventory has indeed left the market leaving buyers wondering if their next home will be here for purchasing in the new year as the MSI rests at 1.4 in this corner of the county.

With December coming to a close in the tony town of Healdsburg there were 36 homes being offered for sale. Properties just listed on the market accounted for seven of these while buyers weighed in and picked up 12 new deals – 10 percent greater than last year. This submarket formally granted new ownership on 21 homes thereby allowing the MSI to plunge to 1.7 – the tightest market this town has seen during the prior 24 months.

As December closed in Petaluma, residents of the city's west side were limited to only 19 available homes on the market – eight of which were just introduced to the market during this same period. Buyers managed to place contracts on 10 homes, while sellers were able to conclude sales on 17 properties causing the MSI to fall to 1.1 – mirroring the tightest inventory periods over the last 24 months and suggesting a continued drought of inventory for the near future.

On the east side of Petaluma, inventory was absorbed even more rapidly and by months end there were only 17 single-family homes in play which included nine new properties that made their way to market in December. Eastside sellers inked 24 new contracts with buyers, and this submarket had 23 homes complete the transfer of ownership thereby allowing the MSI to sink to 0.7 – indicating one of the toughest submarkets in the county for buyers to acquire their new home.

Traveling up the Highway 101 corridor, the combined markets of Rohnert Park and Cotati ended the year with only nine single family homes for sale, which included all nine properties that were newly introduced to the market during the month and marking the first time since the Great Recession that the monthly supply has dwindled to a single digit increase. Buyers came to terms with sellers on 14 homes while sales were completed on 16 more, leaving this submarket with an MSI of 0.6 – thereby making it the most challenging submarket in the county for buyers hoping to make their American dream a reality.

Sebastopol checked in with an availability of 24 single family homes, of which six were listings new to the market in the same month. Sellers in Sebastopol ratified 10 new contracts with buyers as 19 sales were completed further squashing the MSI to 1.3 – echoing the regional inventory woes seen throughout the broader county.

Windsor wrapped up December with just 20 homes available to anxious buyers which included the introduction of nine new properties to market during the same period. Buyers in the market snapped up 19 new deals while sales came to fruition on another 24 properties allowing the MSI to compress further to 0.8 – emphasizing the continued demand for homes from buyers in the marketplace.

The market will always be what it is. No one person can truly sway it one way or another. As you search for your home, realize this is what you truly want. Push aside any cavalier views to find the value in what this means not only to you but to those you have inherent impact on. Consider the value of memories, shelter and traditions as you realize the choices you make will shape your future just as much as it will shape the future of those you love most dearly.