In an average winter, rainfall in Sonoma County peaks in January and begins to taper off in February. That history doesn't bode well for a quick end to the drought, which is now in its third year.
The magnitude of the crisis is becoming clearer with reports that the Sierra snowpack is 12 percent of normal, the state is halting all deliveries to water contractors, and the water supplies for 17 mostly rural communities, including Cloverdale and Healdsburg, could go dry in the next 60 to 120 days.
As a result, pleas for voluntary conservation are giving way in many places to stricter measures.
With no assurance that year three of the drought won't be followed by year four, it's prudent to start making mandatory cutbacks now.
For these measures to succeed, however, water purveyors must overcome public skepticism.
In Southern California, some water districts are worrying publicly about crying wolf. They want to wait and see if spring storms develop before asking customers for anything more than voluntary cutbacks.
Utility regulators, meanwhile, are assessing the impact on the supply and cost of hydro power.
Closer to home, some readers are telling us that they can't do much more after years of saving rinse water for plants, removing lawns and other conservation measures. Others complain that steep rate increases followed past conservation efforts.
Their concerns aren't unfounded.
Over the past 10 years, Sonoma County Water Agency deliveries declined about 20 percent, from 66,500 acre-feet to 54,200 acre-feet, while wholesale and retail water rates have continued climbing to meet the fixed costs of maintaining and operating the water-supply network.