We assume Alex Smith will not be a 49er next season.
We assume the 49ers will trade him. They will not release him because they would get nothing in return, and that's just bad business.
One way or another, he is gone.
So how do we remember Smith, the first pick in the 2005 draft? He never deserved to go first, not in an Aaron-Rodgers draft. Picking Smith so high, placing all those expectations on him, was the 49ers' fault. He suffered for his lofty draft status and his lofty contract — none of it his fault.
And he was not a bust. He is a good quarterback who, unfortunately for him, is not a hell of a quarterback.
He improved every year despite the chaos that was the Niners until Jim Harbaugh took over. He is efficient. He is brilliant before a play at the line of scrimmage when he speed-reads the defense and always — yes always — makes the right call. Colin Kaepernick is no speed-reader, not yet. Look at Kaepernick's final series in the Super Bowl. As a reader, he was moving his lips.
Smith led the league in completion percentage when he suffered a concussion on Nov. 11 — not his fault. He lost his job because he told the truth about the concussion — telling the truth is admirable. And he lost his job because Kaepernick took over and is, or probably will be, a hell of a quarterback.
Smith had his moment of greatness when he led successive touchdown drives on Jan. 14, 2012 in the playoffs against the Saints. He ran for a 28-yard TD capping off an 80-yard TD drive. The Saints came back and scored a TD and took the lead. Then Smith directed an 85-yard touchdown drive and won the game with nine seconds left when he hit Vernon Davis with a 14-yard TD pass. He threw three touchdown passes with no interceptions. He was not a mere game manager. He was a game maker. He played the game of his life and it was, well, a hell of a game.
But he has a flaw. Maybe "flaw" is too strong a word. He is an intellectual and a perfectionist and he waits for the perfect conditions before throwing the ball. That means he wants absolute assurance the receiver is open before he throws and that is no way to operate. Because he waits he sometimes loses his moment and then he gets sacked.
The best quarterbacks are daring, take chances. Think Brett Favre. Think Steve Young. Think Dan Marino. There is a certain amount of faith between quarterback and receiver — "Just throw it and I'll catch it." But Smith does not have that faith, does not understand there are more great catches than great throws. Kaepernick understands this basic truth and lets it rip.