Grant Cohn: Colin Kaepernick's new deal no gamble -- 49ers QB is betting on himself (w/video)

  • San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick smiles as he answers question during an NFL football press conference on Wednesday, June 4, 2014, in Santa Clara, Calif. Kaepernick received a new six-year contract extension Wednesday that keeps him with the franchise through the 2020 season. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

It looked brilliant. And I had to blink.

The 49ers did NOT go all-in with Colin Kaepernick. No, sir. They threw some money at him now – not a lot – and protected their future.

According to multiple published reports, the 49ers can terminate Kaepernick's contract whenever they want for any reason. His extension basically is a series of one-year deals. If the 49ers don't want him anymore after next season, Kaepernick will earn just $13 million from this extension.

Until Kaepernick makes another Super Bowl appearance or a first-team or second-team All-Pro selection, the 49ers will penalize him $2 million annually. When he meets one of those two requirements, the 49ers will stop penalizing him.

Say the 49ers keep him for the next three seasons. If he makes an All-Pro team or goes to the Super Bowl starting next season, his base salary could cost the 49ers as much as $39 million during that time. Reasonable.

But, if Kaepernick doesn't make a Super Bowl appearance and doesn't make an All-Pro team during the next three seasons, his base salary would cost the 49ers just $33 million, or $11 million per season. That's a bargain. That's Alex-Smith territory. The 49ers gave Smith a three-year, $24 million contract two years ago.

The 49ers required Kaepernick to buy disability insurance on his deal. If he suffers a career-ending injury scrambling or running the read-option or taking a sack or doing anything, two things will happen: One, the insurance company will pay him off, not the Niners. They will be off the hook. Two, the insurance company will pay the 49ers $20 million. Sweet deal.

Wednesday afternoon at Kaepernick's press conference, he thanked the 49ers. "I think everyone is very happy that this organization – my coach to Jed (York) to everyone throughout the building – had this kind of confidence to do it at this point in time. I think we all greatly appreciate that."

"Confidence" is a strange word for Kaepernick to use in this context. The 49ers don't seem to have unwavering confidence that he will become the elite quarterback they publicly say he'll be. That's why they leveraged his contract in case he doesn't pan out. That's shrewd.

On the other hand, the Niners didn't give Kaepernick this extension thinking he won't pan out. The idea is for him to strike gold. And if he does, he'll get paid accordingly – he can earn more than $70 million in base salary from 2017 to 2020. He can make even more money through incentives and bonuses. And the deal apparently leaves enough money for the 49ers to re-do Vernon Davis' contract or extend Michael Crabtree's contract if the 49ers are so inclined. Win-win.

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