President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney seemed determined not to discuss climate change in this campaign. So thanks to Hurricane Sandy for forcing the issue: Isn't it time to talk not only about weather, but also about climate? It's true, of course, that no single storm or drought can be attributed to climate change. Atlantic hurricanes in the Northeast go way back, as the catastrophic "snow hurricane" of 1804 attests. But many scientists believe that rising carbon emissions could make extreme weather — like Sandy — more likely.
"You can't say any one single event is reflective of climate change," William Solecki, the co-chairman of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, told me. "But it's illustrative of the conditions and events and scenarios that we expect with climate change."
In that sense, whatever its causes, Sandy offers a window into the way ahead.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York says he told President Obama the other day that it seems "we have a 100-year flood every two years now." Indeed, <WC>the New York<WC1> Times has reported that three of the 10 biggest floods in Lower Manhattan since 1900 have occurred in the last three years.
So brace yourself, for several reasons:<WC>
<BL@199,12,11,10><WC1>Hurricanes form when the ocean is warm, and that warmth is their fuel. The Atlantic waters off the East Coast set a record high temperature this summer. Presumably most of that is natural variation, and some is human-induced climate change.
<BL@199,12,11,10>Computer models suggest that hurricanes won't necessarily become more frequent, but they may become stronger. As the U.S. Global Change Research Program, a collaboration of federal agencies, puts it, "The intensity of these storms is likely to increase in this century."
<BL@199,12,11,10>Climate change adds moisture to the atmosphere, which may mean that storms come with more rain and more flooding.
<BL@199,12,11,10>Sandy was particularly destructive because it was prevented from moving back out to sea by a "blocking pattern" associated with the jet stream. There's debate about this, but one recent study suggested that melting sea ice in the Arctic may lead to such blocking.
<BL@199,12,11,10>Rising seas create a higher baseline for future storm surges. The New York City Panel on Climate Change has projected that coastal waters may rise by 2 feet by 2050 and 4 feet by the end of the century.