SACRAMENT — As Republicans nationwide reconsider the party's direction, nowhere is their challenge more daunting than in California.
The state that produced Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon and the "Orange County conservative" has banished the GOP to the margins, with the party now accounting for less than 30 percent of all registered voters.
The decades-long slide became painfully apparent following last fall's election, when Republicans lost four congressional seats and Democrats captured supermajorities in both houses of the California Legislature. Latinos, Asians, women and younger voters who make up the bulk of the state's electorate all turned away from a party that is seen as driven by conservatives who are out of touch with their views.
In an attempt to restore their party to relevance, Republican delegates are expected to elect as their new chairman this weekend a former state lawmaker who is widely seen as a pragmatist and a political moderate.
But it's far from clear whether the former state senator, Jim Brulte, or anyone else can turn around the party's political fortunes. Even the party's official platform seems a better fit for socially conservative Arkansas than California. It pledges opposition to gay marriage, "alternative" lifestyles, abortion and universal health care, while supporting efforts to declare English as the official language of business.
Brulte and other Republicans want to focus on what they call the GOP's core values, which they say align closely with those of the state's growing ethnic populations.
"I think the Republican principles that are smaller government, less taxes, greater parental control and more local control — I think those are principles that the overwhelming majority of people in California support," said Brulte. "They will tell you that the party has to do a much better job showing its heart."
But the theory that Republicans can connect with Latinos and other groups on social issues and limited government may no longer be borne out in California's demographics. While older Hispanic and Asian voters tend to be more conservative on social issues, those younger than 40 largely say they support gay marriage and legalizing marijuana, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.
"When you talk about these hot-button social issues that are percolating to the top of the agenda, the younger Latinos and younger Asians are more likely to be in sync with the white population" of young voters who are more liberal, DiCamillo said. "That's a long-term problem for the Republicans."
Public opinions polls on a wide range of political and social questions also show that California's growing number of independent voters more closely align with Democrats than with Republicans.
To make matters worse for the state GOP, 9 of out 10 voters who have registered to vote in California during the last 20 years have been Latino or Asian, and Latinos are poised to overtake whites as the dominant ethnic group in the state early next year.
Those new voters are choosing not to align themselves with either of the two dominant political parties, but have voted overwhelmingly Democratic in the last several elections, including approving Gov. Jerry Brown's sales and income tax increases last November.