NAPA — While the California wine market continues to prosper in an era of drought and consolidation, a new survey shows top Golden State vintners remain concerned about the future of the $23.1 billion industry, especially among the discerning millennial market.
America’s 70 million millennials are a major focus for top wine executives, according to a UC Davis survey of 26 senior executives, which included Joseph Gallo, chief executive officer of E&J Gallo Winery, Rick Tigner, president of Kendall-Jackson Wine Estates, and Jay Wright, chief operating officer of Constellation Brands.
Millennials, a demographic group from 18 to 34 years of age, do not have the brand loyalty of previous generations and are branching out among a wide array of choices when selecting an adult beverage, such as craft beer, cider and specialty spirits, analysts said.
“Everyone was a little bit worried. It is expected to continue, the intrusion into the wine category of spirits and craft beers,” said Robert Smiley, professor and dean emeritus of the UC Davis Graduate School of Management, who conducted the survey. It was released Tuesday at the annual Wine Industry Financial Symposium in Napa.
“I think craft beer is taking some of the occasion of wine,” noted one anonymous wine executive who responded to the survey. “I think that first bottle of wine is being impacted; you know, people are starting out with craft beers and then as dinner goes they switch over to wine … so it’s just one more competitor to start (a) meal with.” The executive noted that its winery had introduced some lightly carbonated wines to attract younger customers.
“My wife and I have been having more cocktails than we’ve ever had in our past, and it’s fun,” another executive said. “And so, I realize that it is maybe taking a little bit of the wine-by-the-glass business away.”
The sales statistics apparently bear out that notion, especially as a glass of premium wine at a restaurant is typically more expensive than a craft beer or a mixed drink. “No wonder people are going there. You have to recognize that is competition,” said Mike Veseth, a professor emeritus of international political economy at the University of Puget Sound and editor of the Wine Economist Blog.
“The selection is remarkable in spirits and beer,” said Ben Pearson, wine buyer for Bottle Barn in Santa Rosa. “Ten years ago we were about 70 percent wine. Now we are down in the 60s. Spirits have increased significantly. … There is a flood of new products and people experimenting with new things.”
Sales of California wines remain strong, as they increased 7 percent during the first half of 2014, according Gomberg, Fredrikson & Associates. Overall, the total U.S. wine market increased 1.5 percent during the first six months, an increase of 2.5 million cases.
“Yes, we have talked about this U.S. market having grown for the last 20-plus years. That’s really good. But 1.5 percent is fairly anemic,” said John Ciatti, a broker at Ciatti Co., a San Rafael bulk wine and grape broker.
In contrast, craft beer this year grew by 18 percent (21 million cases) and cider jumped 69 percent (3.4 million cases). “That is our new competition and it is a little scary when you think about cider actually growing more than the entire U.S. wine market,” Ciatti said.