Money race between Deb Fudge and James Gore on pace to break county record

The contest between James Gore and Deb Fudge for the 4th District Sonoma County supervisor seat is on pace to break the record for spending in a county race, a reflection of the high stakes involved in a contest to decide who forms the majority on the Board of Supervisors.

Already the amount of money raised by the two campaigns and independent expenditure committees — $923,000 — has eclipsed the donation record set in 2012 during the race between Susan Gorin and John Sawyer for the 1st District supervisor seat. The Gorin-Sawyer contest also set the county's spending record, at $826,400, including independent expenditures.

(For a regularly updated database of campaign contributions to candidates and independent groups in the 4th District race, click here.)

So far, total expenditures in the Fudge-Gore contest have hit about $775,000, the latest campaign finance reports show. And with Election Day now three weeks away, the spending is likely to escalate considerably.

'I expect to see a lot of late money coming in,' said David McCuan, who teaches political science at Sonoma State University. 'It could be a million-dollar race by the end of the election.'

Gore continues to outpace Fudge in both campaign donations and spending in the race for the north county seat currently held by Supervisor Mike McGuire.

Between July 1 and the end of September, Gore raised $153,000, according to campaign finance reports, while Fudge took in $103,000. Since the start of their campaigns, Gore has raised $401,000 to the $295,000 taken in by Fudge, records show.

To date, Gore has spent about $374,000 compared with the $245,000 spent by Fudge.

Gore has drawn a large share of his financial support from the wine industry. His top donors include the owners of Alexander Valley's Puma Springs Vineyards, Tony Crabb and Barbara Grasseschi, who have contributed nearly $16,000. The Dutton family, Sebastopol-based grape growers, have through various companies given more than $8,000. Other donors include Duff Bevill, founder of Bevill Vineyard Management, Constellation Brands, the seventh-largest vineyard holder in Sonoma County and John Balletto of Balletto Vineyards and Winery.

Gore also is backed by powerful real estate and agriculture groups, including the California Real Estate Political Action Committee, another top donor, which contributed $11,000 since the beginning of the race, and the 3,000-member Sonoma County Farm Bureau, which donated $5,500 through its political action committee.

Fudge has garnered support from large union groups and environmental organizations, such as the Sierra Club and Sonoma County Conservation Action. Her top donor, the Service Employees International Union, which represents the largest unionized group of county employees, has given more than $8,000 to her campaign. Fudge also has received $11,000 in donations from developer William Gallaher and his wife, Cynthia. Margaret Spaulding, a Sonoma Clean Power advisory committee member and former board member for the environmental nonprofit Greenbelt Alliance, donated $7,000. Other high-profile contributors include former Congresswoman Lynn Woolsey, North Coast Rep. Jared Huffman, state Sen. Noreen Evans and 1st District Supervisor Susan Gorin.

Some of the same organizations that have donated heavily to Gore and Fudge have launched or financed independent expenditure committees. The independent campaigns have collected about $227,000 on both sides of the race and spent about $157,000, mostly on mailers and other advertising seeking to sway voters in the tight contest.

An independent group supporting Gore, called Firefighters, Local Farmers and Business Owners, has raised $102,000 since its formation on Sept. 8. About $85,000 of that money has come in since Sept. 29 from the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors, though some of that money is from the North Bay Association of Realtors, an affiliated group based in Santa Rosa.

'Part of the money we have used in the 4th District race has been locally raised,' Daniel Sanchez, director of government affairs for NorBAR, said in a written statement. 'We believe that James Gore's combination of experience in water policy, conservation and agriculture is what our community needs.'

An independent expenditure group opposing Gore, called Working Families and Environmentalists for a Better Sonoma County, has raised $92,500, most of which has been spent. The group has distributed mailers and launched a website, advancing allegations that Gore worked as a lobbyist representing chemical companies and debt collectors during some of his years in Washington, D.C. The attacks also questioned his management of a federal agency, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, where he was assistant chief. During his tenure, the agency came under fire for mishandling millions of taxpayer dollars, making payments to dead farmers.

Gore has insisted he never worked as a lobbyist. His former employer has said he was incorrectly registered as a lobbyist and subsequently took measures to correct the record in a U.S. Senate database. Gore also said he was not in charge of overseeing budgetary matters with the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Fudge stressed that she has nothing to do with the attacks raising questions about Gore's past. She did say, however, that she believes there is 'some truth' to the allegations. The outside group behind the mailers is supported largely by some of her main fundraisers, including SEIU and International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 551.

Fudge's core supporters, including officials with the North Bay Labor Council, said they are waging the independent campaign against Gore because they don't believe he is being truthful about his past. Others said they support Fudge because of her record on negotiating public employee pensions in Windsor.

'Deb cares about issues important to working people, like a living wage,' said Jason Klumb, North Bay field director for SEIU Local 1021. 'Our main expectation is that we have a supervisor who is willing to sit down and listen, and we believe Deb has done that in Windsor.'

Political experts said the money flowing into each campaign and the outside groups underscores how much is at stake in the race. It will determine not only who represents the 4th District — including the cities of Windsor, Healdsburg and Cloverdale — but also who forms the majority on the Board of Supervisors for years to come.

For that reason, any money raised by outside groups is almost certainly going be spent before Election Day.

'Independent expenditure groups never end a campaign with cash on hand, and if they do, it would be a small amount,' McCuan said. 'So I would expect to see more activity within 10 days of the election.'

Gore showed about $51,000 of cash on hand at the end of the last reporting period in September. Fudge had about $50,000 on hand.

Though vote-by-mail ballots have already gone out, Fudge and Gore said they're both ramping up outreach, spending money on mailers and other advertising and walking precincts nearly every day. Fudge touted the fact that she relies entirely on volunteers for such canvassing.

'I don't pay people to walk for me like my opponent does,' Fudge said. 'And when you look at who is supporting me, you can see that I have a real grassroots campaign.'

Fudge has secured more small donations, totaling $100 or less. Gore has fewer donors giving larger sums of money.

Gore said he pays college students minimum wage to walk precincts for him, but said he has others who volunteer.

Both candidates have spent money on consultants and campaign literature, but Gore has invested more on lawn signs, T-shirts, baseball caps and other insignia. Fudge is spending most of her money on personnel.

Analysts said, however, that the money race doesn't always indicate who will take the election. Higher voter turnout can carry a lesser-financed candidate into public office.

'Winners aren't always the big spenders,' McCuan said. 'It's about who comes out on Election Day.'