Warm weekend to flirt with records, but drought drags on

Near-record temperatures in the low 70s are expected today and Sunday in Santa Rosa, creating ideal conditions for enjoying the great outdoors but also adding to concerns that California could be in for an even longer drought.

Today’s forecast high of 72 degrees would fall just short of the record of 73 degrees, while Sunday’s projected high of 71 is a ways off the 76-degree record. Both records were set last year, the hottest in state history and the third year in the now four-year drought.

The sun will have to burn through dense morning fog, likely thwarting new records, AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Edwards said.

Though the springlike temperatures may elicit dread among water managers and some in agriculture - not to mention some seasonal anxiety in the rest of us - several local officials advised that residents take the winter warmth in stride.

Get out and enjoy it, said Caryl Hart, Sonoma County’s Regional Parks director, recommending weekend outings to little-used park destinations on the coast and in Sonoma Valley.

Ranger Bob Birkland at Annadel State Park in Santa Rosa said the 5,000-acre park will draw a big crowd, but it doesn’t depend on balmy weather.

“Rain or shine, we are in constant use,” he said. “This park never takes a vacation.”

But the downside to the sunshine is huge: A high-pressure ridge parked off the West Coast is forcing storms north into Canada and leaving the state with another virtually bone-dry January, Edwards said.

“I don’t see anything promising” in the way of a January rain, he said, and February is expected to continue the trend of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

With a mere 0.11 of an inch so far in January, Santa Rosa is a just over the all-time record low 0.10 of an inch in January 2014, following a meager 1.16 inches in January 2013.

The high-pressure system bears a strong resemblance to the phenomenon that Stanford University-based weather blogger Daniel Swain dubbed the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” for persisting through the two previous winters.

December’s rain, California’s last significant dose of precipitation, broke through the current ridge, prompting Swain, a doctoral candidate in the Department of Environmental Earth System Science at Stanford, to hold off on calling it the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Redux.

But in an email, Swain said, “These kinds of persistent ridges tend to be pretty tenacious,” calling it a “wait-and-see game” to determine if the ridge is back in place for a third winter.

Meanwhile, he said, the evidence of an El Niño has evaporated, and even if it returned, a late El Niño probably would make little difference in the current rainy season.

“California is still in the midst of an intense multiyear drought,” Swain said. Barring a dramatic shift in the second half of the season, “it appears very likely that the drought will persist through the summer months.”

California typically gets about half its yearly precipitation in December, January and February, with much of that water banked in the Sierra Nevada snowpack. Snow in the mountains is scarce, and the moisture content of the snow that has stuck is at 30 percent of normal for now and 16 percent of the average for April 1, when the snowpack is normally at its peak before the spring thaw.

About half the years that start off dry in the Sierra catch up to the average by the end of the state water year, on Sept. 30, the Department of Water Resources said in its latest report on water conditions. But precipitation would have to hit 150 percent of normal to end the drought this year, department officials said.

“California needs an exceptionally wet year to be made whole,” the report said.

The state’s major reservoirs - Trinity Lake, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville - are at 35 to 43 percent of capacity.

The North Bay is in better shape with Lake Sonoma at 77.6 percent of water supply capacity and Lake Mendocino, near Ukiah, at 84.2 percent. The reservoirs impound Russian River water that is delivered to 600,000 customers in Sonoma and Marin counties.

Rainfall since Oct. 1 in the Santa Rosa Basin measures 17.71 inches, a bit better than the 15.17-inch average, while the Ukiah Basin is at 18.2 inches, virtually tied with the 18.48-inch average, the Sonoma County Water Agency reported.

For outdoor enjoyment of the springlike weather, Hart recommended the little-used Los Alamos Road entry off Highway 12 to the back side of Hood Mountain Regional Park and Stillwater Cove Regional Park, best known as a scuba divers’ ocean access point on Highway 1, which also offers 3 miles of trails through fern-lined canyons beneath tall redwoods.

For details on county parks, go to parks.sonomacounty.ca.gov.

You can reach Staff Writer ?Guy Kovner at 521-5457 or ?guy.kovner@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @guykovner.