Sonoma County in for windy deluge, ‘major flooding’ not expected

A potent winter storm packing strong winds and heavy rain arrived Saturday on the North Coast, swelling creeks with steady runoff during the day before the system was expected to intensify overnight, ushering in the season's biggest deluge, one that forecasters said is likely to push the Russian River and other streams over their banks by Monday.

Though little damage was reported Saturday, residents along low-lying areas of the Russian River were already evacuating, heeding warnings about a storm the likes of which California hasn't seen in nearly a decade, according to some reports. Stretching for hundreds of miles along the coast, it was set to dump nearly 4 inches of rain in Santa Rosa and more at higher elevations before moving east, where lower areas in the Sierra could get up to a foot of rain, and higher peaks up to 6 feet of snow.

“What people can expect (today) is heavy rain, heavy wind as the atmospheric river comes over Sonoma County,” said Zach Hamill, coordinator for Sonoma County Fire and Emergency Services.

Wet roads and hazardous driving conditions, clogged storm drains, downed trees and toppled power lines were anticipated, along with high winds gusting up to 50 mph in the North Bay mountains.

The storm stems from a tropical front out of Hawaii clashing with a cold front out of the Gulf of Alaska, producing the type of moisture-laden event commonly known as a “Pineapple Express.” Scientists call such storms atmospheric rivers, and the strongest ones can drench and damage the North Coast, flooding both urban and rural areas.

This system was shaping up to be one of those, though exactly which area of the coast would see the greatest deluge wasn't entirely clear even late Saturday.

“This is the big one with respect to moisture for our area,” said Bob Benjamin, a meteorologist in Monterey with the National Weather Service, adding “it doesn't look like there will be major, major flooding.”

Rain was expected to be heaviest overnight into this morning, becoming more moderate in the afternoon with light rain into Monday. But more heavy rain was expected to start Monday night with storms lined up throughout the week. After a break on Thursday and Friday, more rain is expected for next weekend.

The Russian River was predicted to reach the 32-foot flood stage in Guerneville by 3 a.m. Monday and crest at 35.5 feet at 2 p.m. It was projected to go back over flood stage Wednesday at noon, before beginning to ebb that evening.

The Napa River at St. Helena and at Napa was expected to come near or above flood stage.

When the Russian River reaches 35 feet in Guerneville, historically there is “moderate” flooding, with businesses and residences in the lowest sections of town expected to flood. Mill, lower 4th and 5th streets in Guerneville are the first to flood, along with Redwood Drive in Northwood, according to the National Weather Service.

At Mirabel Campground in Forestville, where flooding typically begins when the river rises to 33 feet at the Guerneville Bridge, residents were moving their travel trailers Saturday to the nearby Forestville Youth Park.

“We're tying down everything we can, so it won't float away. We're getting our trailers and everything out of here, getting to higher ground,” said Terry Naughton, who said it's the third time she's had to evacuate because of flooding in the four years she has lived at the campground next to the Russian River.

“This isn't my first rodeo. I had to pull out in 2014. I know what it means to get up and go quick,” said Christina Campbell, who was moving her 25-foot trailer, two dogs and a cat. “We are going to be safe, make sure no one gets left behind,” she said of the campground's roughly 20 residents.

On Saturday by 4 p.m., 1.58 inches had fallen at the Sonoma County-Charles M. Schulz Airport and 3.28 inches in the region's top wet spot, Venado, in the hills west of Healdsburg.

There were scattered reports of downed trees, several mudslides in the west county and the typical road closures in low-lying areas, such as Eastside Road between Trenton-Healdsburg Road and Riverfront Regional Park, Austin Creek Road in Cazadero and Mark West Station Road.

PG&E reported few storm-related problems, with only about 25 customers in Santa Rosa who lost power.

But the utility was gearing up for anticipated outages as the ground becomes soggier, winds build and trees are vulnerable to toppling over.

“We have extra crews on alert and will respond to outages as soon as they occur,” said PG&E spokesman J.D. Guidi. “The forecast is that much of the service area will be impacted through Monday, with additional storms on the horizon.”

Meanwhile in Monte Rio, employees at Noel's Automotive had already moved 15 cars to higher ground in advance of the storm, said owner Charles Brown.

Brown said he didn't use sandbags available at various locations around the county because it would likely not make a difference, given that his business on Main Street is very close to the river.

“It's just part of living next to the river,” Brown said. “We usually take water at 38 feet.”

His main concern Saturday was securing enough water and food, and checking that his generator would work if power goes out. Many others had the same idea. Over at the Oliver's Market on Stony Point Road, there was an uptick in customers Saturday morning, following a very packed Friday night.

“It was insanely busy yesterday,” said Dustin Cater, assistant store director. “It's been very consistent. The rain is definitely bringing people out.”

Bottled water and firewood were two top sellers, Cater said. Customers were also buying canned goods.

“Chicken noodle soup was gutted,” he said.

Staff Writer Bill Swindell contributed to this story. You can reach Staff Writer Clark Mason at 707-521-5214, or clark.mason@pressdemocrat.com.