Grant Cohn: Where Colin Kaepernick might land in NFL's open market

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That’s the message Kaepernick’s agent sent to 32 NFL teams via Adam Schefter Friday morning. Schefter wrote, “Kaepernick will be opting out of his contract, according to a source, becoming a free agent.” The source probably was the agent, Scott Smith. I called him to confirm but he didn’t return my message.

Kaepernick can’t officially opt out until March 2, and teams can’t sign him until the beginning of free agency. By leaking his intentions now, Kaepernick and his agent are trying to create a market that may not exist.

How many teams that need quarterbacks really are interested in Kaepernick?

The Niners aren’t. If he thought they were, he wouldn’t have opted out. He could make as much as $19.3 million next season under his current deal. On the open market, he’d be lucky to get half that amount and the money probably wouldn’t even be guaranteed.

So why does Kaepernick want to hit the market as soon as possible? Because if he stays with the Niners, they could cut him in June or July, and then he’d be screwed. The quarterback market would be picked over at that point - teams already would have their quarterbacks. Kaepernick would have to wait for one to break his leg or some other body part, or else he’d have to sit out a year. Those would be his options.

He needs other teams to put him in their plans right now. Needs them to watch his film and scout him and weigh his positives against his negatives.

Teams have been drooling over Kaepernick’s positives since he came into the league. Here they are: He runs fast, he throws hard and he’s tall. He’s a good athlete, although his athleticism is diminishing. He turns 30 in November. That’s one negative.

His biggest negatives are his words and his attitude. He’s addicted to himself. Has the “Disease of Me.” Thinks he has all the answers in football and society and life.

He thinks he can play quarterback devoid of mechanics and fundamentals, and he thinks he knows more than his coaches. He doesn’t want to change the way he plays. He wants to prove his recreational style works. Wants to prove the “haters” wrong. Everyone who disagrees with him is a hater.

Kaepernick also wants to lecture people on social issues he doesn’t fully understand. He sees himself as the next Malcolm X. And if you don’t think he’s the next Malcolm X, he sees you as a symptom of the problems in America. No one is enlightened like he is.

Kaepernick is not coachable. That’s because he’s the coach. He’s the expert. How can anyone turn around a quarterback who thinks he’s leading himself, his team and his country in the right direction? Bill Walsh couldn’t resurrect Kaepernick’s career.

Johnny Manziel has a better chance to turn things around than Kaepernick does. Manziel is an alcoholic, and he says he’s sober now. At least he admits he has a problem.

The best thing Kaepernick could do would be to admit he has a problem as well. He should hold a press conference and say, “I’ve been acting like I know everything, and I really don’t. I want to be a student again. I want to listen and learn. I’ve shined on a lot of coaches and made them look foolish for believing in me. I don’t want to do that again. I don’t want be a problem.”

Until he does that, NFL teams will define him by his negatives. And most teams that need quarterbacks won’t want him.

The Bears won’t want him. Their defensive coordinator is Vic Fangio, who knows firsthand what a problem Kaepernick is. Fangio will not vouch for him.

The Broncos won’t want him. They spent a first-round pick on a quarterback last year. They don’t need Kaepernick.

The Texans won’t want him. They’re paying their own quarterback, Brock Osweiler, $19 million next season. They can’t afford to pay Kaepernick, too.

The Jets won’t want him. Their owner, Woody Johnson, is one of the biggest supporters of Donald Trump in the country. Trump just made Johnson the ambassador to the U.K. - Johnson won’t want Kaepernick speaking out against Trump to the New York Times, New York Daily News, New York Post, tWall Street Journal. Talk about a media distraction. Johnson won’t allow it.

Who will want Kaepernick? Maybe the Browns if they can’t get someone better. But they have two first-round picks - they can draft a quarterback. Or they can trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, the best QB available this offseason. Kaepernick probably would be their third or fourth choice.

Even on discount, teams may pass on Kaepernick. May decide he’s not worth it at any price. His career might be over.

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the “Inside the 49ers” blog for The Press Democrat’s website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.