Grant Cohn: 49ers' Colin Kaepernick bet on himself in offseason … and lost

If Colin Kaepernick were as good as he thinks is, he already would be gone.

When the offseason began, Kaepernick made it clear he feels unhappy and unappreciated in Santa Clara, made it clear he wants the 49ers to trade him. He seemed to think other teams would see him the way he sees himself - a great quarterback. Seemed to think he could pick his destination and that team would embrace him as a savior the way the University of Michigan embraced Jim Harbaugh after the 49ers fired him. Or they mutually parted ways.

At first, Kaepernick picked the New York Jets as his preferred destination. The Jets need a quarterback because their starter, Ryan Fitzpatrick, is a free agent and he wants a ton of money. Kaepernick thought he could slide in and take Fitzpatrick’s job.

Not so fast, Colin. The Jets didn’t want Kaepernick. At all. “Kap isn’t even on their radar,” Jason La Canfora of CBS tweeted on Feb. 3. “Jets have not and are not interested.”

Unfazed, Kaepernick moved on to the next team with a quarterback vacancy - the Denver Broncos, who reportedly were interested in Kaepernick. But, not THAT interested. Not interested enough to offer the 49ers anything more than a fifth-round draft pick in 2016.

The 49ers didn’t want a fifth-round pick in exchange for Kaepernick - they wanted a second-round pick. The Broncos scoffed at that. They traded the Eagles a conditional seventh-round pick in 2017 for veteran quarterback Mark Sanchez.

The Broncos still could be interested in Kaepernick, and could trade for him whenever they like. Maybe during the draft they will make another offer, but they probably won’t increase it to a fourth-round pick. They don’t even have a fourth-round pick to use.

Seems Kaepernick probably won’t go to Denver.

Which narrows his options to Cleveland and Santa Clara. The Browns reportedly wanted Kaepernick and were willing to trade the 49ers a third-round pick for him as long as he would take roughly a 50-percent pay cut to between $7 million and $8 million per season.

The Niners balked at that offer - they still wanted a second-round pick in return. And, Kaepernick balked, too - he didn’t want to take a pay cut to play in Cleveland. Who would? So, the Browns took the money they had allocated for Kaepernick, and gave it to Robert Griffin III. Cross Cleveland off Kaepernick’s list. Now, it seems Kaepernick will stay with the 49ers, has no alternative but to stay.

What has Kaepernick learned about himself this offseason, and what have we learned about him?

We’ve learned he’s now in the RG3 class of quarterbacks. The Mark Sanchez class. The Blaine Gabbert class. The class for placeholders. Quarterbacks who used to be young and talented, but missed their chance to become franchise guys and now are merely filling a place until younger, more talented quarterbacks develop and take over.

Even if Kaepernick stays with the Niners, he probably won’t be their long-term solution. The Niners are working out three of the top quarterbacks in the draft - Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Connor Cook - and could take one of them. Even the Niners seem to view Kaepernick as a bridge to the future.

Kaepernick used to be the future. He’s probably used to thinking of himself as a young, athletic quarterback with potential. But, that’s not who he is anymore.

He is a veteran who has not mastered his craft and probably never will. He hasn’t developed his decision-making or accuracy - two of the most important attributes for a successful NFL quarterback.

Think of all of the quarterback gurus Kaepernick has gone to, all of the coaches he has worked with, all of the snaps he has played during games - including college and high school - and all of the practice snaps he has taken in his entire life. We’re talking tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of snaps, and he still hasn’t changed.

So, what did Kaepernick learn about himself in this long, frustrating process? He misjudged the world’s opinion of him. That’s a very bad thing to misjudge.

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the “Inside the 49ers” blog for The Press Democrat’s website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.