Cohn: Look for a huge game from Frank Gore

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So, who's going to win Sunday's NFC championship game, which will be one heck of a game - believe me. Well, be patient a minute as we provide essential background.

The Giants, who at one point were 6-6, are peaking right now and the 49ers are playing their best football of the season. This is the battle you want, two elite teams meeting at the height of their power and pride, meeting in San Francisco for dibs on the Super Bowl.

The Giants most definitely are elite. They have a great front four and a wicked pass rush. Quarterback Eli Manning is hot and wide receiver Victor Cruz is playing out of his mind. The Giants receivers are flat-out great, certainly better than the Niners' wideouts.

Jim Harbaugh, who respects a tough, relentless team, said this about the Giants: "This is a Super Bowl-contending team. That's who they are. It's a cruel team. They don't give you things. They don't let you have what you want. They don't make mistakes, turn the ball over to you. They're the opposite of that. They're an opportunistic football team, a hard-working football team."

Enough praise for the Giants. I don't want you to feel suicidal. Before we get to the prediction part of this piece, here's a small lesson on the West Coast Offense which Harbaugh, in his football wisdom, brought back to the Niners.

The West Coast Offense, as handed down from Sid Gillman to Bill Walsh to Harbaugh (with others in between) looks for the greatest discrepancy in matchups. Walsh was a genius (that word again) at creating favorable matchups. In West Coast tradition, Harbaugh looks for the 49ers' best weapon vs. the opponent's weakest defender. He does not seek out best vs. best.

Last week against the Saints, the best vs. the worst was Vernon Davis dominating New Orleans strong safety Roman Harper, Davis finally catching the game-winning pass over Harper. Harbaugh will look for another favorable matchup today.

You can rule out Vernon Davis as the sleeper receiver in this game - as the best matchup. Sure, the Saints never caught onto him, and that's why they're out of the playoffs. But the Giants aren't dummies. Plus, they've watched the game film. They know they can't cover Davis one-on-one.

The Giants will do the only rational thing. They will double-cover Davis, the Niners' only serious downfield threat, the Niners' only dominating receiver. The Giants will put a safety and a linebacker, or a cornerback and a safety on Davis on obvious passing downs.

Where is the flaw in this plan? Because Davis will take up two defenders, some other 49er will be single-covered. Who can that be?

If you said Michael Crabtree, go back five spaces and turn in your Get Out of Jail Free card. Forget Michael Crabtree. He is not yet a big-game receiver. Last week, he had trouble even holding onto the ball.

Think Frank Gore. When Davis gets double-teamed, Gore will have one less linebacker or one less safety to deal with. That applies to running plays and pass plays. Think Gore coming out of the backfield as a receiver. Think big game for Gore.

Here's something else to remember about the West Coast mentality. It's all about innovative looks and strange groupings. It is most definitely not about new plays. Harbaugh runs the same plays from different formations to confuse the defense. He creates camouflage for his base plays. He gets the defense to think about anything but what actually is happening. Recall how he makes linemen eligible receivers, and sometimes tells Alex Smith to throw them the ball, but sometimes Smith doesn't throw them the ball.

The idea is to put something convoluted in front of the defense, to get defenders anxious, to make them think about irrelevant things. And then you run your meat-and-potatoes stuff at them. It's like a Three-card Monte version of football, except there are more cards, not to mention more Montes. The Giants will feel dazzled by all the Niners' looks.

And now think about the weather. I apologize for writing about weather as I am not a weatherman. But weather will matter in this game. (Is weather the 12th man?) If it's wet and marshy, the Niners will - must - throw the ball successfully in the first half before the field conditions become trashed. Look for them to run in the second half when the field is a swamp. And look for Gore to be in the middle of everything.

So who wins? Smith was noncommittal - as you'd expect - but he was noncommittal in an interesting way.

"At this point with four teams left, there's no underdog, there's no favorite," he said the other day. "We're all fighting for a trip to the Super Bowl. To say that anyone should win these games, I think, is kidding themselves. I mean, look at last week. Everyone thought the road was going to go through Lambeau. Everyone assumed the championship game was going to get played there, and look what happened. At this point, everybody's as good as each other and it's all going to come down to how you execute that day. We're all capable of beating each other, that's for sure."

We give Alex good marks for diplomacy, but we say the 49ers win 27-20. The Niners are a better team. The 49ers have more top-level players. The 49ers have coaches with greater creativity. And the 49ers already beat the Giants this season.

The Giants used their adrenaline last week to beat the Packers at Green Bay. The Giants are used to artificial turf and will have trouble with the mud and goop of Candlestick.

And there's one more thing. The 49ers are so high. It's impossible to refuse them. All this feels like destiny.

For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular, go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.