Water shortage still a worry

With not enough rainfall so far this winter to replenish lakes Sonoma and Mendocino, water officials fear there may be another dry year and mandatory conservation measures ahead.

"I pray for this year not to be like last year, and I don't think my prayers have been answered," said Sean White, general manager of the Russian River Flood Control and Water Conservation Improvement District in Ukiah. "We are essentially where we were last year, but a few thousand acre-feet worse."

Even though the historically wettest months are still ahead, with lakes Sonoma and Mendocino at the lowest levels in a decade, North Bay water officials are inceasingly worried.

To date, Ukiah rainfall is at 53 percent, Cloverdale at 56 percent and Santa Rosa at 66 percent of average.

"It looks grim today," said Glen Wright, Santa Rosa's deputy director of water resources. "I think we should start thinking about it and we are thinking about it. We are definitely concerned, but it is not over yet, we have had miracle Januaries and Februaries and Marches before."

Chris DeGabriele, general manager of the North Marin Water District, said it is not premature to start talking about conservation.

"Customers have been apprised that conservation is a way of life and we have to preserve our water resources and protect the fisheries," DeGabriele said. "The message has been out there a lot the last several years, and folks are smart, they see there is no rain."

Lake Sonoma, the primary source of water for 600,000 residents from Windsor to San Rafael, has 182,500 acre-feet of water. That is the lowest level in the past 10 years, but still enough to provide a two-year supply for customers and for required river flows.

Lake Mendocino, northeast of Ukiah, is the sole source from Ukiah to Healdsburg and also provides water for the fall run of chinook salmon in the Russian River.

It was at 32,689 on Thursday, the lowest for this time of year in the last decade.

Lake Sonoma was at 182,804 acre-feet, also the lowest for this time of year in a decade.

The agency is most concerned about Lake Mendocino, "but to be honest I am also getting concerned about Lake Sonoma," said Pam Jeane, the Sonoma County Water Agency's deputy director of operations. "Fortunately, Lake Sonoma tends to fill quickly, so if we get rain it would help."

Meteorologists have identified a moderate El Ni? warming of the ocean, but it only means there will be a 50 percent chance of a wetter year.

The first significant rain of the new year could hit Monday and last through Wednesday, with another wet period later in the week before a high pressure ridge builds back in, said Bob Benjamin of the National Weather Service in Monterey.

It's a typical pattern of a series of storms moving through, but it's too early to predict with any accuracy how much rain the storms will bring, he said.

Last year, the Water Agency was granted permission by the state to lower the flows in the Russian River to save water in Lake Mendocino for the fall run of chinook salmon, which are on the federal threatened list.

At the same time, the state Water Resources Control Board ordered the Water Agency to reduce the amount of water that it took from the Russian River by 25 percent and set a goal of 25 percent conservation to the agency's Sonoma County customers and a 50 percent goal for Mendocino County.

The Water Agency supplies Windsor, Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Petaluma, Sonoma and the Valley of the Moon, North Marin and Marin Municipal water districts.

Conservation measures resulted in the Water Agency reducing the water taken from the Russian River by 30 percent. Water use by Sonoma and Marin customers dropped by an average 20 percent and the use in Mendocino County dropped 40 percent.

"We are still paying catchup after three years of drought and it is not looking good this year," Jeane said. "We may be looking at a year similar like last year when we are asking people to use less water."

Lake Mendocino could again be in danger of running dry unless there is significant rainfall in its 100-square-mile watershed in Mendocino County.

"If we got a really good couple, three storms, we could be in much better shape," Jeane said. "I don't think we could be up to the flood pool, but in much better shape."

Ukiah has an average rainfall of 39.36 inches a year and by this time has usually received 16.5 inches. So far, however, 8.7 inches have fallen in scattered storms that have done little to feed the lake.

Cloverdale, on the edge of the watershed that feeds Lake Sonoma, has an average rainfall of 42.69 inches a year and by this time has usually received 18.18 inches. So far 10.21 inches have fallen.

Santa Rosa has received 8.25 inches. It normally has 12.52 inches by this time of the rainy season, and an annual average of 31 inches.

"The same pattern that got us in this pickle last year is sitting over us again," White said.