Bodega Bay fishermen are holding on to a slim hope that there will be a chinook salmon fishing season this year, even though the number of adult fish that returned to the Sacramento River in 2009 was the lowest on record.
"We expected there would be low returns of adult fish this year," said Chuck Wise, a veteran Bodega Bay fisherman.
Wise believes that a more detailed analysis of returning salmon - not yet available - could offer encouragement.
"We don't know what the jacks are," he said, referring to juvenile salmon that return to fresh water a year before they are ready to spawn. "I hope there will be enough jack counts to give us some sort of season."
The count of "jacks" gives an indication of the number of salmon in the ocean that are expected to return this year.
Both sets of numbers will be used in April by the Pacific Fishery Management Council when it decides whether there will be a salmon season.
The salmon fishing season has been closed for two years because of the low numbers of chinook, which are on the federal threatened species list.
On Feb. 25, the preliminary count will be discussed at a meeting at the Sonoma County Water Agency office. For the Sacramento River, there were 39,530 adult natural and hatchery chinook salmon that returned in 2009, the lowest on record.
In 2008 there were 66,294 adults counted and in 2007, 90,000.
"That's alarming," said Bill Sydeman, president of the Farallon Institute for Ecological Research. "It shouldn't have been that low. Based on environmental conditions in the ocean in 2007, when those fish went to sea, I would have expected there to be an increase over 2008."
In the Russian River, the number of returning adult chinook was slightly greater than in 2008, but the river represents a very small part of the overall fishery.
There were 1,801 chinook salmon counted going through the Sonoma County Water Agency's fish ladder at Forestville, compared to 1,125 in 2008.
Although the number of jacks will be important in the decision, Sydeman doesn't think it could offset the decline in adults.
"Based on returns for this year, I would seriously doubt there will be any fishery," Sydeman said. "That is too low, unsustainable. This is very bad news, and unexpected."
Wise, who has been fishing since 1966, said he remains optimistic that there will be a fishing season, no matter how truncated.
"I fish crab. If it wasn't for crab, some guys would be out of business," Wise said. "If I don't salmon fish, I will go albacore fishing more than I would. I am still making a living, but not the greatest living."
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