Would Prop. 19 curb pot-linked violence?

Marijuana prompted several men to strong-arm their way into a west Santa Rosa home last week and tie up residents with duct tape. It lured a pair into an illicit garden in Round Valley where they were shot dead by its tenders.

It led an unknown killer to shoot a 31-year-old father in his Santa Rosa garage, leaving him for dead and making off with the goods.

Marijuana may be a mellowing depressant when ingested, but its trade often is the nexus of violence. The huge profits made in the marijuana business drive much of the associated crime.

Proposition 19, the Nov. 2 ballot initiative that would legalize marijuana in California, at its best would slash profits from the illegal trade and curb the violence, backers say.

At its worst, critics say, it would pit local and federal law enforcement against each other. Marijuana cultivation would proliferate, as would efforts to steal the drug and transport it outside the state to sell at higher prices, opponents contend.

"I think you're still going to have violent crime associated to it, and I believe it may even increase because of the availability," Sheriff Bill Cogbill said.

Polls offer conflicting analyses of voters' inclinations toward Prop. 19. Of people surveyed by the Public Policy Institute of California in September, 52 percent said they'd vote yes, 41 percent said they'd vote no and 7 percent were undecided. But a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Oct. 5 reported that 53 percent of Californians surveyed oppose legalizing marijuana and 43 percent support it.

Researchers at the Rand Corp., a think tank based in Santa Monica, predict that legalization will slash the profits in the marijuana trade and that as production costs go down, so will the risks.

By their estimates, the cost of an ounce of indoor-grown sinsemilla, the prized seedless buds of a female plant, could fall as much as 84 percent.

That would undercut the price outside of the state as well, the Rand report said.

"If you make the trade legal, it's not clear that the same people would be involved in it or even attracted to it if there aren't the same kinds of profits," said Elliott Currie, a professor of criminology, law and society at UC Irvine.

Currie's research has focused on drug policy, trafficking and drug abuse, including a 1993 book that in part looked into the effects of decriminalization.

"If marijuana is illegal and you want to get some, that means you have to hang out with people who may also be selling crystal meth, heroin and other bad drugs," Currie said. "Severing that connection between marijuana and the hard drugs can only be a good thing."

"I disagree," Santa Rosa Police Chief Tom Schwedhelm said. "Car stereos, anyone can buy, but people still break into cars to take them."

The Sonoma County Law Enforcement Chiefs' Association opposes Prop. 19, as does the California Chiefs' Association and many other law enforcement organizations.

A group of retired officers, judges and prosecutors called Law Enforcement Against Prohibition, however, supports the measure. Its members argue that current marijuana laws have done nothing to stanch violent crime.

"The question is quite simple when you boil it down: Do you want to continue what has never worked?" said former San Jose Police Chief Joseph McNamara, a member of the group.

Marijuana has become far more mainstream in California since voters in 1996 passed Proposition 215, the medical marijuana initiative formally called the Compassionate Use Act. Hundreds of people gather without fear of arrest each year in Laytonville to watch judges give awards to growers who deliver the best high.

Licensed clinics across the state now provide pot to people with recommendations from physicians, and backyard plots have proliferated, creating more targets for criminals.

The California health department issued 337 medical marijuana IDs to Sonoma County residents and 280 IDs to people in Mendocino County during the 12 months that ended June 30. The IDs are voluntary and may represent only a small fraction of the people with physician recommendations for pot.

Local authorities say the prevalence of indoor marijuana gardens has led to an increase in home invasion robberies.

A week ago, three men, two with firearms, grabbed a woman by the hair as she walked up to her west Santa Rosa home and pulled her inside. The suspects apparently had been tipped off to a large-scale illegal marijuana growing and processing operation in the home, said Sgt. Steve Fraga, who runs the violent crimes unit. The men bound the woman and another man with duct tape and made off with an unknown amount of processed pot.

It was one of 10 home invasion robberies involving marijuana so far in 2010 in Santa Rosa, Schwedhelm said. There were seven in 2009.