Uncertainty is growing over when commute trains might reach Windsor, Healdsburg and Cloverdale after new and sobering reviews of sales tax projections and the reduced likelihood of getting state and federal funds.
On Wednesday, the Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit board decided to extend the rail line to San Rafael's downtown transit center, effectively using up all the available money from its quarter-percent sales tax increase and potential bond sales.
When and where the money will come for the long-promised track and pedestrian/bicycle path from Santa Rosa to Cloverdale is now unknown.
"It's our goal to extend as soon as we possibly can, but I can't choose a date out of thin air without having information on how much we receive when we bond," said Debora Fudge, SMART chairwoman, on Thursday. "We will know more about how far we can go when we issue construction contracts."
Only last month, facing a $350 million funding gap, SMART estimated the line could be extended to Cloverdale and to Larkspur by 2018, pending the receipt of other state and federal funds.
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission told the SMART board Wednesday that its sales tax projections were overly optimistic and needed to be revised.
The regional planning agency also said getting state and federal funds in this economic climate would be difficult.
Since completing the line was uncertain, MTC recommended that SMART's initial segment extend from the Civic Center to downtown San Rafael, a major transportation hub, that would connect the two largest cities in Sonoma and Marin counties.
It increases the cost of the project, however, by about $38 million.
MTC said that there was $22 million in Bay Area Toll Bridge funds for the San Rafael extension, along with potential savings from deferring building stations in north Petaluma and Atherton and down-sizing the bicycle-pedestrian path.
"It is important to get this initial operating segment right, it is probable we will be living with it for awhile," said Randy Rentschler, MTC's manager of legislation and public affairs. "That will be the segment that will be operating in the near term, and we don't know when that will be over."
In MTC's report, SMART was warned that extending the line would mean waiting until the sales tax hike passed by voters in November 2008 ends in 2028, when SMART can ask for it to be reauthorized.
On Thursday, Rentschler said the reference to the sales tax renewal was an overstatement, that MTC doesn't believe it will take another 18 years before additional money will become available for the extension into north Sonoma County. The reference was meant to convey a message that additional funding would be needed.
"The idea of the new sales tax is euphemism, it is until there is new money, until there is a significant recovery in the economy or another revenue source," Rentschler said.
It is also an indication, however, the financial problems facing SMART in its attempt to build a 70-mile line could be worse than thought.
"I think we will see the train, I absolutely do. But will I bet $1 million on it? No, we are in a bizarre economy," said Carol Russell, a SMART director and mayor of Cloverdale. "SMART is becoming as much a political issue as it is a transportation issue. What I do find is people want to get the hell off the highway."
Madeline Kellner, a SMART director and Novato councilwoman, said it was a dose of reality.
"I think you tell the public what MTC told us, that is what we have the money for now," Kellner said. "You can't go out and manufacture money, that is the reality of the situation. I sat in a council meeting Tuesday and got an update from our staff for the next several years and things are not looking good. It is a common dilemma, definitely for the public sector."
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