By BRETT WILKISON
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT
Sonoma County supervisors are set to begin work Tuesday on a months-long process of redrawing their district boundaries to reflect 2010 Census figures.
The step is required by state law and happens every 10 years to rebalance population growth among various legislative districts.
California's voter-mandated Citizens Redistricting Commission is now overseeing that work for state and Congressional districts. State legislators used to have those powers, an arrangement that critics said led to protected seats being drawn for both political parties.
County redistricting efforts have generated little such fanfare and supervisors and city council members still retain redistricting duties on the local level.
As in past decades, supervisors today are set to appoint a three-member advisory committee including the Sheriff, District Attorney and Clerk-Recorder-Assessor to oversee the process.
The panel's suggestions are expected back in early July, and supervisors will hold at least two public hearings before they approve any plan by a Nov. 1 deadline.
"This has not been extremely controversial," said Board Chairman Efren Carrillo. "It's all going to take place in a public setting."
But because two supervisorial districts are in line for notable changes, redistricting is expected to be a major factor heading into next year's political races, said David McCuan, a Sonoma State University political scientist.
The 1st District, which includes Sonoma, Sonoma Valley and parts of northeastern Santa Rosa, is set to grow more than others. The district needs to expand because its population grew slower than any other district over the past 10 years, adding only 728 people.
The opposite would happen to the 3rd District, which includes most of Santa Rosa and Rohnert Park. Because it grew by 10,017 people, the largest increase by far, it stands to be the only supervisorial district to shrink under the plans.
The other three districts, which saw increases between 3,500 and 7,200 people, would share the remaining total of the population growth.
Supervisors may also take into account geography and the preservation of contiguous, compact districts that do not divide towns or "communities of interest," a catch-all term that can mean everything from agriculture to a neighborhood such as Roseland.
The results are likely to push the 1st District, traditionally based out of Sonoma, further into Santa Rosa, said Supervisor Valerie Brown, who represents the district. It already includes Rincon Valley, Bennett Valley and the community of Oakmont.
"If you have 2,000 more people from Santa Rosa, that's big," she said.
Changes to the 3rd District, meanwhile, are likely to "chip away at the corners," breaking off outlying parts of the district but leaving the main urban core intact, said Supervisor Shirlee Zane, who represents the area.
Both supervisors said they were not concerned about the possible changes.
But still in doubt, observers said, is whether Brown, Zane and another board incumbent, Chairman Efren Carrillo, will even run next year. All three have yet to say whether they will seek re-election.
Zane said Monday that she would consider a run for Rep. Lynn Woolsey's seat if the Petaluma Democrat decides to retire after her 10th term in Congress ends next year.
"If it comes out that it's my race to lose, I'll consider it," Zane said.
Brown, a former state assemblywoman and the board's lone two-term veteran, said she is weighing her "options" while not detailing what those are. Carrillo, who represents the 5th District, has not confirmed his candidacy, though he did hint in an interview last week that he has made plans to run for re-election.
Those decisions and moves by others could put a number of county, state and congressional seats up for grabs next year, McCuan said.
"If one person steps off that board, it's going to cause a lot of shifting up and down the ballot," he said.
By that time, thousands of county voters could find themselves in a different supervisorial district.
The changes could pose challenges for both incumbents and their rivals, politicians said.
If she runs, Brown would have to spend more time and resources courting new voters outside her current district. Her likely challengers, all based out of Sonoma or Sonoma Valley, would face the same situation, she said.
They include Gina Cuclis, a communications consultant, Mark Bramfitt, an energy consultant and board member on the Valley of the Moon Water District and Sonoma Valley Citizens Advisory Commission, and Will Pier, an ecologist.
"If it affected anybody, it might affect someone who is new," Brown said of the additions to her district. "I've walked all those precincts."
Cuclis, who has yet to file papers, disagreed with an assessment of her chances based on her hometown.
"It's not simply about geography," she said. "It's your message. It's your history. It's how you relate to people. There's a whole variety of things that make up a campaign."
In another corner is Santa Rosa City Councilman John Sawyer. He has considered a run for supervisor but he remains unsure which district he might be in next year.
His Bennett Valley house is currently in the 1st District. It has been in the 3rd District in the past.
"I can see the border from the bathroom window," Sawyer said.
Also, he said he wouldn't run if either Brown or Zane decided to defend their seats.
"It's all kind of an unknown for me," he said. "I can't make any decisions until some of them are made for me."
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By the numbers
Sonoma County population, by supervisorial district
2010
District 1: 93,962
District 2: 96,171
District 3: 102,821
District 4: 96,086
District 5: 94,838
2001 (post-redistricting)
District 1: 93,234
District 2: 92,594
District 3: 92,804
District 4: 88,850
District 5: 91,132
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau Redistricting Data
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