Sonoma County's population of residents age 65 and older has grown at about three times the rate of the total county population, according to new U.S. Census data.
The graying of the county over the past decade poses significant challenges.
The workforce is shrinking even as a growing number of older residents start to need more expensive care. And demands will accelerate for services ranging from public transit to different kinds of housing, such as one-story homes.
But the changes also signal the growth of what could be a key asset. Older people represent new markets in sectors from health to hospitality. And seniors may provide valuable community support as they take up volunteering, mentoring and other activities.
"There are challenges, there will be costs, but there are opportunities," said Ben Stone, director of the county's Economic Development Board, who has studied the role of the elderly in the county's economy since 1995.
Also, the numbers would seem to bear out Sonoma County's reputation as a comfortable place in which to grow old.
"I'm sure enjoying life," said Gerardo Lemus, 66, a Santa Rosa resident for four decades who keeps himself young by volunteering at KBBF, a bilingual radio station where he hosts a morning show.
"We got everything," he said. "The weather, places to go sightseeing, to take your grandkids, which is what I enjoy now. Watching the soccer games, the basketball games."
On the other hand, Lemus, who receives a union pension and Social Security, knows many in his age group who are struggling in their later years.
"I don't need any help myself," he said. "But there's other people that really need help; it's either the rent or the medicine."
The county's demographic developments mirror a national trend and are driven by the front edge of the nation's generation of baby boomers, who were born in the years after World War II and started turning 65 last year.
"This was what was projected and it's definitely coming to fruition," said Marrianne McBride, president and CEO of the nonprofit Council on Aging, a senior advocacy and services organization.
In 2000, there were 57,977 county residents age 65 and older. In 2010, that number was 67,364, a 16.2 percent increase. Overall, the total population grew 5.5 percent over that period, to 483,878. And the number of people 64 and under rose by just 3.9 percent, from 400,637 to 416,514.
The shift will eventually highlight the cost of caring for the elderly — and the cost of not caring for them.
"The biggest concern is the need for services, and government funding for senior services continues to decline," McBride said.
An example of the squeeze: The council provides Meals on Wheels service to 1,700 people, and expects to serve 2,000 within a year, McBride said.
At the same time, since 1965, the federal share of funding for the program has gone from 100 percent to 35 percent, she said.
As cuts to government-financed services go on — in nutrition, Alzheimer's day care, rental assistance and case management programs for seniors — the elderly poor, especially, face a lot of uncertainty.
"It's a dire situation," said Jo Weber, director of the county's Human Services Department. She noted that the number of residents aged 60 to 64 grew by 88 percent in the last 10 years, portending "another wave" on the horizon.
"We're going to continue to see significant growth in the demand for our services," Weber said, "But we don't anticipate that we're going to see growth in our resources."
The department expects an additional 20 percent cut this year to programs that provide in-home services for people age 60 and over who need help cooking, dressing, shopping and taking medication, among other things.
The more such services are cut, the more difficult it is for poor senior citizens to remain living on their own.
"If you require care and you do not have the financial resources to pay for it while at home and you can't afford to go and live in a senior community," said McBride. "You go to a skilled nursing facility."
Such facilities, which Medicare pays for, can cost upwards of $50,000 a year, she said, and "ultimately those costs could hit taxpayers."
At Santa Rosa's Bennett Valley Senior Center, which the city considered shutting last year to close a budget deficit, Marie McGuinness, 80, testified to the crucial role played by programs designed for older residents.
"It adds a lot to my life to be able to come here," McGuinness said. "If I stay home, I stay in bed and I get very depressed. That's part of getting older, fighting depression."
The center's longtime supervisor, Jan Post-Schwarz, spotlighted another potential trend that may prove troublesome, yet also fruitful, at least for the economy.
UPDATED: Please read and follow our commenting policy: