The downside of dry weather

The persistently dry weather that has made a mockery of winter on the North Coast has been a boon for duffers at the Bennett Valley Golf Course.

"You couldn't ask for much better," golf pro Jess Stimack said this week.

But off on the horizon lies a sense of foreboding that if more wet stuff doesn't fall soon, the payback for all of these gorgeous sun-dappled days will be water restrictions, damage to crops and a bunch of wilted flowers.

Already, the water prognosticators are declaring this a dry water year - and it's only February.

Ken Clark, an Accuweather meteorologist, said a La Ni? pattern of cooler water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is in place, shifting the jet stream farther north and enabling a high-pressure system to block precipitation for most of the winter in Northern California.

Storm tracks are running into British Columbia, leaving Sonoma County abnormally dry, he said. An extended forecast sees rain likely on Tuesday and perhaps next Friday, and some reports see February as a rain-shy month.

La Ni?'s impact on Sonoma County is uncertain, Clark said, because the county lies between a wetter-than-average zone La Ni? brings to northernmost California and a drier-than-average zone in the state's central and southern regions.

"It could go either way" in Sonoma County, he said.

Last winter, also a La Ni? year, the county was drenched and the Sierra blanketed with snow because the high-pressure system set up farther east, allowing storms to sweep into California and then become diverted north, he said.

As bone-dry as it's been this year, the 6.30 inches of rain that fell in Santa Rosa in January actually were slightly above the 30-year average for that month, which is 5.93 inches.

In January 1976, the driest on record, just more than a third of an inch of rain fell in Santa Rosa.

The city avoided a similar fate this year in large part because of a series of weekend storms that drenched the North Bay in late January.

The precipitation was welcomed by grape growers, who were worried about damage to the dormant vines.

If the dry ground wicks moisture out of the plant, it can kill the roots, said John Azevedo, a grape buyer for Kendall-Jackson Family Wines.

"I'd be pretty freaked out if we hadn't had that storm," he said. "I think we're OK for now. I'll think that for a couple of weeks, and then I'll freak out again."

Doug Beretta, a third-generation dairyman whose ranch is on Llano Road three miles east of Sebastopol, said he's never seen dust coming off the ground this time of year.

"It's scary," he said.

The recent rains helped green up his pasture. But he still worries that he'll have to spend more money on feed this year because the grass and silage crops are still below average.

He said the feed for organic dairies such as his already is in short supply.

"If we all start having to buy feed in spring and summer, it's going to get really expensive," he said.

Northern Sonoma County was rated as "abnormally dry" and the county's southern area as "moderate drought" in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report on Tuesday.

The ratings indicate a seasonal, short-term lack of rain that could readily be reversed by a wet spell, said Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln, which helps compile the weekly Drought Monitor.

"There's still time to come out of it," he said, before the rainy season ends.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center on Tuesday put nearly all of California, except for the far northeast corner, in an area likely to receive below normal precipitation through the end of month.

"Right now, it doesn't bode well for February," Svoboda said.

The Sonoma County Water Agency on Wednesday declared this to be a dry water year, a classification based on inflow from rain into Lake Pillsbury on the Eel River in Lake County.

But conditions are not so bad as to warrant reducing the amount of water flowing into the Russian River from reservoirs, said Pam Jeane, general manager of operations.

Lakes Sonoma and Mendocino, which provide drinking water for 600,000 residents in portions of Sonoma and Marin counties, are still above 84 percent of capacity.

"It's looking pretty good right now," Jeane said.

Sara Malone, a master gardener who lives in Petaluma, said the cold and dry weather hasn't caused major problems for backyard gardeners.

She said the most significant issue is gardeners forgetting that plants still need to be watered, even if the calendar says February.

"Backyard gardeners tend to turn off their irrigation at the onset of the rainy season," she said.

But this year, there has been no onset. Just an onslaught of sun.

Staff Writer Guy Kovner contributed to this report.

You can reach Staff Writer

Derek Moore at 521-5336 or derek.moore@pressdemocrat.com