GOLIS: Where did the jobs go?

Not long ago, people in Sonoma County couldn't imagine being the 10th worst place for jobs in America. We took prosperity for granted, and why not? The jobless rate hovered near 4 percent.

Besides, who didn't want to live, work and run a business in this place blessed by a beautiful landscape, a gentle climate, and a world-class food and wine industry?

Who on earth would rather live in Odessa, Texas, or Lafayette, La.?

It turns out that someone needing a job might want to live in those less glamorous precincts. In an analysis using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Odessa ranked first among 398 cities in non-farm job growth. Lafayette ranked fourth. Sonoma County ranked 389th. The jobless rate here last month was 9.5 percent.

Los Angeles economist Joel Kotkin, who prepared the analysis, explained to Press Democrat Staff Writer Steve Hart, "You have 20,000 fewer jobs than you had in 2000."

So, what are we to make of this unhappy picture and what it portends for working people and the local economy?

We should begin by saying that a single economic indicator doesn't begin to tell the whole story. It's misleading to suggest that the Sonoma County economy is worse off than dozens of places with far higher unemployment rates, lower household incomes and even worse real estate markets.

Still, data gathered by the state Employment Development Department and reported by the Sonoma County Economic Development Board do reveal an economy stuck in neutral long before the recession arrived in 2008.

In 2001, 248,400 local residents were employed. By 2008, only 246,300 were working.

Then came the recession. By December of 2009, the number of people with jobs fell to 227,100.

We shouldn't be surprised. The last 15 years have brought tough times to some major job producers.

Beginning in the 1990s, jobs in what we used to call Telecomm Valley began disappearing in large numbers, as corporations learned it was cheaper to do business in other states and other countries.

When the real estate bubble burst in 2008, the construction industry cratered - and thousands of jobs went away.

And now, having lived beyond their means for a long time, state and local governments face the inevitable reckoning.

Consider: In the 12 months ending in March, government employment in Sonoma County declined by 3,400 jobs, from 31,100 to 27,700, according to the state Employment Development Department. From the ongoing deficit travails of state government, it is reasonable to conclude that additional job losses will follow.

(Meanwhile, a demographic report from the Economic Development Board reminds us that the aging of the local work force continues. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of residents between 50 and 70 jumped by 41 percent, about 37,000 people. At the same time, the number of people between 30 and 50 declined by 19 percent, about 28,000 people. In workplaces and in community meetings, a 50-year-old doesn't expect to be the youngest adult in the room, but it happens all the time in Sonoma County.)

When I talked about jobs with Ben Stone, director of the Economic Development Board, he highlighted initiatives designed to promote job development in specific industries - wine and tourism, green construction, professional services, health and advanced manufacturing.

"If I knew a young person, I'd tell them to find a way into health, or to start a small company," he said.

"The opportunities (in a global economy) are greater than ever," he added, "... It's just that the competition is greater."

After too many years of complacency and political gridlock, Sonoma County is left to compete in a world transformed by a technological revolution, globalization and recession.

Are we up to the task? An educated workforce, the infrastructure necessary to support new employers and a common-sense government will be key. Success also will require political leaders who can convince the rest of us that we have responsibilities to the generations that come after us.\

Pete Golis is a columnist for The Press Democrat. Email him at golispd@gmail.com.