Safe seats turn North Coast reps’ gaze to House fight

With name recognition, legislative history, big-money backing and opponents that lack established political records, Democratic Congressmen Mike Thompson of St. Helena and Jared Huffman of San Rafael are virtually assured of re-election next week.

The drama on election night, in a midterm election generally lacking in sizzle, lies in how much, if any, of their 17-seat House minority the Democrats can pick up by defending vulnerable incumbents and winning toss-up races, conditions that do not apply to the two Democrat-safe congressional districts that include parts of Sonoma County.

But political parties rarely make gains in their president’s second midterm election, which tends to bring out older, white, rural voters who are “pretty angry,” said David McCuan, a Sonoma State University political scientist.

Two issues that have emerged in the last few months - the Ebola health threat and the Islamic State’s violent spread through Syria and Iraq - have added to an already volatile election landscape, he said. Dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama’s six years in office further dims Democratic prospects.

Many analysts expect the Republicans’ House majority to swell. McCuan said his forecast ranges from a net gain of at least six GOP seats - boosting the party’s majority to 23 - to a net gain of 27 seats, giving Republicans 260 of the House’s 435 seats.

That number would far exceed a Republican campaign, announced in May, called “Drive to 245,” targeting a net gain of 12 seats.

The “most likely scenario,” McCuan said, is a GOP gain of 10 to 15 seats. “That’s huge,” he said, but noted that the average midterm loss for the incumbent political party from 1934 to 2010 is 37.7 seats.

Democrats captured the most recent supermajority by winning 295 House seats, a net gain of 36, during Lyndon Johnson’s presidential landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964.

The incumbents

Thompson, 63, an eight-term House veteran and former California state senator who has never lost an election, is running in the 5th Congressional District, which includes Santa Rosa, Rohnert Park, Cotati and Sonoma Valley, all of Napa County and parts of Lake, Solano and Contra Costa counties.

A Democratic Party rainmaker known for his fundraising prowess, Thompson has collected nearly $1.7 million in his bid for a ninth House term. He captured 80 percent of the vote in the June primary, and faces a political newcomer with no party preference, James Hinton, 40, of Napa in the run-off mandated by California’s top-two primary system.

Huffman, 50, who won the House seat vacated by former Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey in 2012, raised nearly $975,000 in his first re-election campaign and took 68 percent of the June primary vote. His opponent, supermarket cashier Dale Mensing, 56, of Garberville, is the only Republican competing in the two congressional races.

The 2nd Congressional District stretches from Marin County to the Oregon border. Democrats account for about half of the registered voters in both districts, with Republicans and no party preference voters splitting most of the rest.

Thompson and Huffman agree that Democrats will not win a majority this year, but Thompson is more sanguine about the party’s prospects.

“I think we’re going to have some success in gaining seats,” he said, without citing a number.

Huffman acknowledged the likelihood of Republican gains, noting that Democrats are defending seats the party won in swing districts in 2012, a presidential election year that drew high voter turnout which typically benefits Democrats.

Low turnout expected

Turnout on Nov. 4 will likely be low, and Obama’s popularity is tanking, Huffman said.

“If we can hold our losses to single digits we’d be doing well,” he said. “Five or less would be great.”

Political analyst Larry Sabato’s latest “Crystal Ball” prediction called for a Republican gain of six to nine seats.

Thompson said he’s been raising money for five Californians among the 27 House members who are beneficiaries of the Democrats’ Frontline program, aiding incumbents in competitive districts: Ami Bera of Elk Grove, Julia Brownley of Westlake Village, Lois Capps of Santa Barbara, Scott Peters of San Diego and Raul Ruiz of Coachella.

Bera, a physician who upset Republican Dan Lungren, a former California attorney general, in 2012, is locked in one of the most competitive - and expensive - congressional races this year against Doug Ose, who retired from Congress in 2005 and is attempting a comeback.

Bera has raised $3.5 million and Ose $2.4 million, while spending by outside groups in the race exceeds $9.5 million, including more than $2.4 million in the last week alone, according to OpenSecrets.org, an independent nonprofit that tracks campaign spending.

By contrast, outside spending for both Huffman and Thompson is an identical $86, with $76 from the California Teachers Association and $10 from the Sierra Club.

Thompson is also helping other Democrats on the Frontline list who co-sponsored his bill to extend background checks for firearms sales, a measure Republican leaders have declined to bring to a floor vote.

Huffman, a former environmental attorney, said he’s been boosting green-minded Democrats who are strong on climate change and energy issues. “I need help,” he said. “I’ve got to start building a more climate-friendly House.”

Thompson said he wants to address rebuilding infrastructure, job creation, renewable energy development and making education more affordable.

Neither those nor any other Democratic initiatives will go far until the party regains control of the House.

That could happen in 2016, McCuan said, when the party’s prospects will be boosted by the presidential campaign. It is even more likely in 2018, given demographic and political shifts that favor Democrats.

Democrats are pursuing a “two-inning strategy,” Huffman said, hoping to hold as much ground as possible this year then rally in 2016 behind presumed presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and a continued economic recovery.

Challengers optimistic

The two local challengers, Mensing and Hinton, said they are optimistic in the face of long odds. Neither filed a campaign finance report, required when contributions or expenditures exceed $5,000.

Mensing, a registered Democrat until switching to the GOP in 2009, claimed his chances are “pretty good.” He’s campaigned on the streets, talking to people in four or five visits to both Sonoma and Marin counties, where nearly two-thirds of the 2nd District’s voters live.

“I let them know I’m battling for freedom,” Mensing said. “I am contrary to the system, and the system is failing.”

Asked if he supports the House Republican leaders’ strategy of bottling up legislation, Mensing said that Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid does the same thing and that it’s “not necessarily a positive thing to pass more laws.”

Mensing said he expects to garner Republican support and votes from Democrats who “value their gun rights” and are opposed to Obamacare.

Hinton’s platform is based on economic measures that he said are based on “making everyone pay their fair share.”

“Look out Wall Street,” said Hinton, a former cash game and online poker player who advocates a 1 percent tax on Wall Street transactions, including stocks, bonds and derivatives, exceeding $4 million a year. Hinton’s economic proposals also call for substantial increases in federal tax deductions for families, a 15 percent tariff on all imported goods and federal refinancing of all student loan debt to zero percent interest.

A medical marijuana patient who uses cannabis to relieve his psoriatic arthritis, Hinton advocates removing the federal prohibition on medical marijuana and a national single-payer health care system.

To shore up Social Security, he backs the idea of raising or removing the payroll tax cap, currently set at $117,000.

Hinton, a political newcomer, said he has learned a lot and developed a network during his campaign and will challenge Thompson again in 2016.

“This is a test run,” he said. “It wasn’t win or go home.”

You can reach Staff Writer Guy Kovner at 521-5457 or guy.kovner@pressdemocrat.com.