Break in rain a ‘Winter dry spell’ that’s occurred since 1950

For those who didn’t play hooky and enjoy the outdoors during this mid-winter heat wave, the dry spell is forecast to continue through the weekend, culminating with an 80-degree sizzler on Monday’s Presidents Day holiday.

The fine weather spree - more readily appreciated with reservoirs all or nearly full - is part of a meteorological phenomenon termed by one expert as the Mid-Winter Dry Spell. It’s been referred to as the Mid-Winter Brag Week by laypeople with relatives in colder climes.

“People always comment: It stopped raining, is winter over?” said Jan Null, a Saratoga-based consulting meteorologist. “The one thing I’ve learned in doing weather for 40 years is that people have very short weather memories.”

Winter is not over, even though the last rain fell Feb. 2. Predictive models suggest the rain could return as soon as Wednesday or Thursday.

If that occurs, the 15-day break and warmth fits nicely into a pattern that Null, who worked for the National Weather Service for 23 years, has documented back to 1950.

Over 65 rainfall seasons, the clouds part sometime usually in January and offer a break in the rain lasting an average of 20 days.

Last year brought the longest pause on record by Null’s account, with a 56-day dry spell that started Dec. 21. The shortest dry spells lasted only eight days during two seasons, in 1957-1958 and 1995-1995.

This year is unusual because the dry spell started so late, Null said.

National Weather Service forecasters have said there’s a good chance that, once the rain returns, the state will experience above-average precipitation through April.

Behind the counter at the Trek store on Mendocino Avenue in Santa Rosa, bike mechanic Justin Oakley and his co-workers nodded knowingly when asked if they were aware of an annual winter rain pause.

“I know it because people start to bring their bikes in for repairs,” Oakley said. “That’s the best indication.”

Oakley said it’s brought a welcome sense of spring. He noticed on a recent ride in Annadel State Park that the deciduous oaks were full of buds.

The meteorological phenomena was also familiar to two friends sitting outside Friday at Sprenger’s Tap Room on B Street.

Amalia Savvidis, 27, of Santa Rosa said there’s almost always a heat wave in the days leading up to an annual dance competition she attends in Southern California.

Her friend Chelsea Hahn, 26, of Santa Rosa said that she takes full advantage and tries to soak up as much vitamin D during the sunny interim.

“It’s time to paint your toes and get the toe rings out,” Hahn said.

You can reach Staff Writer Julie Johnson at 521-5220 or julie.johnson@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @jjpressdem.