Rain, gusting winds return Wednesday to Sonoma County

Three storms lined up in the next five days should bring more than 3 inches of rain to Santa Rosa — more than double that in area hills — and fierce winds expected to topple trees and knock out power.

Wednesday afternoon's forecast includes wind warnings of gusts topping 50 mph in North Bay hills and 40-45 mph in the valleys. The strongest winds are due just ahead of the heaviest rains and the combination could impact the afternoon commute, said Steve Anderson, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Monterey.

There also could be a dusting of snow for Mount Saint Helena and Cobb Mountain, the area's highest peaks.

The difference from last week's onslaught of storms is these are expected to occur at intervals, which should help ease impacts, Anderson said.

'Wednesday rain. Thursday break. Friday rain. Saturday break. Sunday more rain,' Anderson said. 'They're going to be quick movers too, with not a prolonged amount of rain.'

Anderson didn't expect major problems on the Russian River but creeks and streams throughout the region could flood as the rain adds to the already saturated ground.

Rainfall totals last week topped 10 inches in several areas and in the Sierra more than 10 feet of snow fell. Impacts included days of flooding along the lower Russian River, dozens of flooded roads and numerous mudslides. Thousands of area residents, mainly in rural communities, suffered lengthy power outages.

This week's first storm is due in the North Bay after midnight Tuesday. The front should leave late Wednesday night or Thursday morning on its way to Southern California and Arizona. Anderson expected Santa Rosa could get an inch of rain Wednesday, another inch or so Friday and more than an inch Sunday.

'Friday looks like a carbon copy of Wednesday. However Sunday appears to be the wettest of the three storms,' he said. Current computer models aren't clear enough yet on just how wet it could be.

The Wednesday and Friday storms are products of the Gulf of Alaska and will be cool, with snow falling at 3,500 feet. Mount Saint Helena tops out just over 4,300 feet and Cobb Mountain breaks at 4,700 feet.

Sunday's storm is more like last week's subtropical event coming from the west. Temperatures will be a little warmer and snow levels will be higher.

On the coast, forecasts call for swells to 15 feet by Thursday and a high swell advisory warning. Swells should increase into Saturday to 20-28 feet and then drop to about 14 feet on Sunday.

Typical winter swells along the Sonoma coast range from 8‑14 feet, said U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer Trevor Armstrong, stationed in Bodega Bay.

'With commercial crabbing open, we'll keep a sharp eye on what could happen. We'll look at the boat traffic, and may put out broadcasts for deteriorating weather conditions,' Armstrong said.

Tim Murphy, supervising state parks lifeguard on the coast, said at least four lifeguards will on duty Saturday and five Sunday to keep an eye on the surf and visitors who put themselves in precarious situations.

'We want people to be extra cautious,' Murphy said. 'We'll make sure our guys are really vigilant on the beach, especially where the Russian River mouth is, Goat Rock and beaches with most of our surf activity.'

Out along the Russian River, many still are trying to dry out from last week's rain. Attitudes Tuesday about the upcoming storms included resignation and forecast skepticism.

'We're tired of it here,' said Lynn Crescioni, owner of Creekside Inn & Resort on Neeley Road. The riverside inn, which long ago was raised above serious flood levels, had no flooding issues last week but the road to town was cut off by 6 feet of standing water. 'You feel trapped.'

The longtime resident wasn't too concerned about this next round of storms, knowing from her 36 years on the river they don't seem to be shaping up as any kind of real threat. But still, she laughingly admits to routinely checking for forecast updates.

'It changes every 6‑8 hours.' Crescioni said. 'Let's keep our fingers crossed.'

Monte Rio Fire Chief Steve Baxman said he's expecting 4-5 inches of rain in the river region per forecasts. 'It's not going to be any problem with flooding,' he said, but he does anticipate falling trees and sliding hillsides. 'Who knows till it hits?'

You can reach Staff Writer Randi Rossmann at 707-521-5412 or randi.rossmann@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter@rossmannreport.