Bill would make California presidential primary third nationwide in 2020

As the most populous of states with the most electoral votes to award in presidential elections, California should be a pivotal player in the contest to decide the major-party candidates running for the highest office in the nation.

But a June presidential primary has relegated the state to back-bench status, with nearly ?20 million registered voters here facing the prospect of weighing in on contests that have largely been wrapped up in earlier elections across the country, Democratic and Republican party representatives say.

On Tuesday, state lawmakers and California’s elections chief unveiled a proposal to return the state’s 2020 presidential primary to March or earlier, making it the third scheduled primary on the calendar.

“A state as populous and diverse as California should not be an afterthought,” California Secretary of State Alex Padilla said in a statement announcing Senate Bill 568.

The bill’s author, Sen. Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Gardens, also would authorize the governor to move the primary even earlier on the calendar if other states move up their voting dates.

The stated goal is to enable 19.4 million registered California voters, the current number, to cast ballots right after the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary three years hence.

The earlier vote “would make California relevant again in the selection process of our next president,” Assembly Speaker pro Tempore Kevin Mullin, D-South San Francisco, said in a written statement.

It also would likely bolster the political fortunes of state Democrats with hopes of moving into the White House, a political analyst said Tuesday.

Gov. Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and newly elected Sen. Kamala Harris are among those who could use an early California vote “to leap onto the national stage,” said David McCuan, a Sonoma State University political scientist.

And the winner would emerge with “big mo,” meaning momentum, heading into the rest of the primary season, he said. “It could frame the race.”

Last year, when Californians cast their primary ballots on June 7, Donald Trump’s four Republican opponents had withdrawn and Hillary Clinton had clinched the Democratic nomination the day before over Bernie Sanders.

“We’re flattered, @AP, but we’ve got primaries to win. CA, MT, NM, ND, NJ, SD, vote tomorrow!” Clinton tweeted about 6 p.m. June 6 in response to a decisive call made by the Associated Press in her favor.

California’s 2008 primary, moved up to February, attracted the highest primary voter turnout since 1980, Padilla said in the written statement.

Clinton won that primary, but eventually came up second to Barack Obama.

Laurie Gallian, chairwoman of the Sonoma County Democratic Party, said an early 2020 primary in what she called “prime time” would be a plus in terms of boosting turnout.

It also would require presidential hopefuls to raise sufficient funds to campaign in the nation’s third-largest state, behind Alaska and Texas.

Iowa and New Hampshire are much smaller but also much less diverse and less representative of the nation as a whole, analysts say.

One concern, Gallian said, is that the list of active candidates can shrink between March and June.

Edelweiss Geary, the Sonoma County Republican chairwoman, noted that local party members voted in 2008 for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who later dropped out with four other would-be contenders in the field.

“So their vote didn’t count,” Geary said, adding she is not in favor of early primaries. “You don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Geary said she suspects the state’s Democratic lawmakers and officials may be aiming to move up the 2020 vote because they are “desperate to get a candidate going early,” whether or not the candidate is a Californian.

Rep. Jared Huffman, D-San Rafael, welcomed the proposal Tuesday.

“California should be a factor in presidential nominating contests, and our late primary has contributed to our state being simply an ATM and not a major campaign stop for the candidates,” Huffman said in an email. “We should be one of the first primaries, but if we can’t do that, we should at least move things up to March.”

A California politico - such as Brown, should he choose to shoot again for higher office, Newsom or Harris - would get a boost in the presidential sweepstakes by winning the California primary, McCuan said, noting that Padilla is among a host of other potential 2020 contestants. California’s 55 Electoral College votes are virtually certain to go to the Democratic nominee in the November general election.

Brown, 79, can’t be counted out because he “keeps talking about it,” McCuan said.

California, as the “center of the anti-Trump movement,” is positioned to play a role in 2020 politics, he said.

SB 568 would consolidate the presidential primary with the vote for statewide officeholders and legislators to avoid multiple election dates.

You can reach Staff Writer Guy Kovner at 707-521-5457 or guy.kovner@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @guykovner.