Herdt: Conserve water, but don’t panic yet

Californians are starting to freak out about the drought.

That was evident when Gov. Jerry Brown held a news conference this month to announce a relatively modest drought-relief effort that consists principally of appropriating money from last fall's statewide water bond a few months earlier than it otherwise would have been.

News reporters are not always the best gauge of public sentiment, but when Brown began entertaining questions, they came in rapid fire, each one a variation on the same theme. Why aren't you doing more? When are you going to order mandatory conservation measures? Isn't it time to go into crisis mode?

In this case, polling indicates the reporters may have been accurately reflecting the concerns of their audiences. A December survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 60 percent of state residents believe water supply is a 'big problem' and that state and local governments aren't doing enough to deal with the drought.

Those percentages would certainly be higher now, following the driest January on record in Northern California and the most meager measurement ever of the March snowpack in the Sierra.

From a historic standpoint, this drought is indeed severe, even unprecedented in modern times in terms of consecutive years with very sparse precipitation. But there were consecutive years in the mid-1970s that were nearly as dry, and in the six-year period from 1987 through 1994 there were five years in which statewide precipitation was significantly below normal.

One thing that seems to be different in the public reaction this time is that, despite constant warnings from scientists not to assign the cause of a single event to climate change, many seem to fear that global warming has consigned California to a condition of permanent drought.

In fact, climate scientists do not specifically share that concern.

In a 2013 summary of climate-change modeling conducted by scientists around the world, UC San Diego's Scripps Institute of Oceanography assessed the most serious predicted effects on California. Its report cited sea-level rise, more numerous wildfires, a diminishing mountain snowpack and more frequent heat waves in Southern California.

As for the effects on rainfall, the long-range forecasts of climate change models are not so dire. The report notes the models generally suggest somewhat wetter conditions lie ahead for Northern California and somewhat drier conditions in the southernmost segments of the state.

In short, there is no scientific basis for anyone to fear that California is going to dry up and blow away as a result of climate change.

However, if Californians are indeed beginning to freak out about the drought, that is not a bad thing. It could inspire the most important short-term response to the drought, one that is largely beyond the power of state and local governments — a widespread ethic of water conservation.

As Senate Republic leader Bob Huff said at the governor's news conference, the most important short-term response to the drought is for Californians to develop a sense of personal responsibility.

The challenge for governments and water managers is to come up with long-term solutions that allow water policy to adapt to the effects of climate change.

If, as the modeling suggests, the snowpack is going to be reduced by 50 percent or more, management of existing storage systems must adapt and new storage must be designed to capture winter rainfall rather than spring runoff.

The modeling also predicts the rainy season will become more condensed and storm events will become more intense. If that's the case, it will become imperative that systems be designed to capture water that now runs off in floods and to allow exports from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to be maximized during brief periods of true surplus.

The capturing of urban stormwater will become more important, as will the development of flood basins that will allow surging water to be spread over low-lying areas so that it can recharge groundwater.

As Brown noted last week, these long-term adaptations will take time. 'When you're piloting a huge battleship,' he said, 'it turns slowly in the water.'

In the short term, if the drought extends for a fifth year or beyond, freaking out may become a more rational response.

'If the drought continues,' Brown said, 'there will be a building sense of emergency.'

The best advice for now: Be smart, but don't panic.

Climate-change scientists are not suggesting it will never again rain in California. But not one is smart enough to say when the rain will be turned back on.

Timm Herdt is a columnist for the Ventura County Star.