Herdt: Gearing up for a major test?of top-two primary system

California's top-two primary, created by passage of a ballot measure in 2010, has changed the political dynamic in dozens of district-level contests across the state over the last two election cycles.

One of the biggest boosters of that ballot measure is now getting ready to place a big bet that it also can fundamentally change the political calculus for becoming governor of California.

Former state controller and Silicon Valley businessman Steve Westly, who lost a closed Democratic primary for governor in 2006, is on the verge of announcing that he will run again in 2018. And he believes the top-two primary will be a game-changer.

Westly was at the state Democratic Party convention last weekend, meeting with potential supporters to discuss his likely campaign.

Officially, his position is that he will not make an announcement until the end of summer. But in an interview, Westly sounded much like a man who has made up his mind.

Taking the notebook from my hand, Westly drew three circles on a blank page. One represented Democrats, and he labeled it with the number '44' with a downward arrow. Another represented Republicans, with the notation '31' and a downward arrow. Between them was a circle representing no-party-preference voters, with a label of '25' and an arrow pointed up.

Those notations represent the percentages of the current California electorate in each circle and whether each of those percentages is headed up or down.

That middle circle, he asserted, gets larger every year and by 2018 the voters in that circle will be decisive.

That was precisely the theory behind Proposition 14 — that it would change the dynamic in which the two major parties each nominated the most ideologically extreme candidate and replace it with a system that empowers independents and rewards more moderate candidates.

That theory has been proven true in a couple of legislative and congressional races in which candidates from the same party advanced out of the primary to compete against each other in the general election.

But there is a flaw in that theory as it applies to statewide races, in which the entry fee for waging a competitive campaign is about $25 million. Without the support of traditional party donors and backing from the party infrastructure, a candidate from outside the traditional mold cannot compete.

It takes two things to be elected governor of California, Westly told me: a narrative that appeals to voters and resources.

Westly has the resources.

As one of the first employees of eBay, he made hundreds of millions of dollars after the company went public. He spent $46 million on his unsuccessful 2006 campaign.

Then he went back into business and made at least scores of millions more.

He was an early investor in Tesla Motors in 2007, and later an early investor in Revolution Foods, an Oakland-based firm that produces healthy school lunches at a price school districts can afford. It has grown from producing 500 meals a day at three local schools to producing 1 million meals a week at 1,000 schools in 50 cities across the country.

Westly was also one of President Barack Obama's leading national fundraisers and has very close ties to the president's political team. He intimated that some of them will become part of his team if he decides to run.

In short, Westly is in a unique position to test the theory behind the top-two primary.

He is also unique among the long list of multimillionaires who have littered California's political history with failed campaigns.

Unlike all the rest, Westly, 58, does not come to politics on a whim. He's been involved in state political affairs for 40 years.

Westly's potential candidacy was likely a factor in Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom taking the extraordinary step of announcing his 2018 candidacy early this year.

That election is a very long way off; Gov. Jerry Brown is less than six months into his final term.

Many scenarios are possible. Newsom could consolidate the party's base and block other big-name Democrats from entering.

Or a third prominent Democrat, such as former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, could jump in. Maybe a well-funded Republican will emerge to seriously compete.

But at this point, Westly sees the possibility that the next campaign for what is arguably the nation's second-most important elected executive office could be between a maverick Democrat and a more traditional Democrat.

That would be a stunning outcome of the top-two primary and would trigger a political campaign unlike any California has ever seen.

Timm Herdt is a columnist and Sacramento-based writer for the Ventura County Star.