PD Editorial: Iowa brings some clarity to 2016 campaign

Iowa has spoken.

Well, a little more than 10 percent of Iowa’s 3.1 million residents participated in Monday’s caucuses - a turnout considerably smaller than Sonoma County’s population and a collection of voters far less diverse than the American electorate.

In other words, the results probably don’t foreshadow the outcome of the presidential election. They may not even say much about the eventual standard-bearers. But these were the first actual votes of the 2016 campaign, cast in places such as Council Bluffs and Des Moines and Mason City, and the results included a few surprises, while offering a degree of clarity for both parties - and even some reason to hope for a more substantive contest going forward.

Donald Trump’s second place finish suggests that the reality TV showman can’t run away with the GOP nomination with a campaign that’s long on bombast and short on specifics. A record turnout, with many first-time voters, was expected to benefit Trump. It didn’t.

A poor showing isn’t going to knock Trump out of the race, or out of the 24/7 spotlight of cable TV news, but it’s reassuring that three out of four GOP voters rejected his boorish act.

Trump leads in the most recent New Hampshire polls, so it’s too soon to say he’s just another, ahem, loser. But the results in Iowa undercut Trump’s oft-repeated claim that he, unlike the other candidates, is a winner.

Iowa produced three winners: Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida and, on the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Cruz, who is competing with Trump for voters eager to upend the status quo, finished first among Republicans on Monday by relying on two staples of Iowa politics: a strong ground game and appeals to religious conservatives. As Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, who won the GOP caucuses in 2008 and 2012 respectively, can tell Cruz, a victory in Iowa can be quickly forgotten. With his extreme views and lack of support from GOP leaders, that may prove to be true for Cruz, too. But for this week, he has reason to boast.

Rubio, one of the establishment GOP candidates, exceeded expectations in Iowa with a late surge that nearly overtook Trump. Polling at caucus sites found that he scored well with voters whose top concern is winning in November as opposed to ideological purity.

On the Democratic side, Sanders won the expectation game, sweeping younger voters and progressives with his attacks on Wall Street and support for single-payer health insurance. He finished in a virtual tie with Hillary Clinton, who emphasized her experience and her support for President Barack Obama’s policies. But he has yet to demonstrate support with minority voters, a key Democratic constituency that will play an increasing role in upcoming primaries.

Iowa also winnowed the field as Huckabee and Martin O’Malley, a Democrat, suspended their campaigns.

Now it’s on to New Hampshire, then Nevada and South Carolina, with Super Tuesday now less than a month off, and the stakes getting higher each step of the way.