What Prop. 48 will and won’t decide

Before deciding how to vote on Proposition 48 on the Nov. 4 ballot, there are two things a California voter should know:

1. A yes vote means there will soon be a new Indian casino built just off the Highway 99 freeway near Madera.

2. A no vote means there will soon be a new Indian casino built just off the Highway 99 freeway near Madera.

That’s right: The big-picture result will be the same regardless of the outcome of the election. Still, there is much riding on this vote.

Proposition 48 is a referendum, sponsored by two nearby tribes with existing casinos several miles off the freeway, asking voters to overturn a compact between the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians and the state. Those competing tribes are concerned their casinos will lose business if a new one opens in a more accessible location.

The compact was negotiated by Gov. Jerry Brown and ratified by the Legislature in July 2013. Under the compact’s terms, the North Fork Rancheria agrees to make up to $35 million in one-time payments to local governments to offset the environmental impacts of the casino. It also agrees to pay state and local governments about $10 million each year for 20 years to address ongoing impacts.

In addition, the compact limits the maximum number of slot machines to 2,000 and requires the tribe to operate its casino under the oversight of the California Gambling Control Commission. Employees would have to licensed, gambling devices tested, and programs established to deal with problem gambling. All that will happen - the monetary payments to state and local governments, the limit on slot machines, the regulations - if Californians approve Proposition 48, upholding the compact.

And what if they reject Proposition 48?

A casino will still be built, under one of two scenarios, or a combination of both.

Neither scenario guarantees any revenue for nontribal entities. One would allow for an unlimited number of Class II gambling devices that are virtually indistinguishable from slot machines.

How can that happen?

The fact is that Indian gaming is an activity regulated principally by the federal government, the same government that long ago banished Native American tribes from their ancestral lands and shunted them off to reservations.

The federal 1988 Indian Gaming Regulation Act, in a nod to the states, allowed states to negotiate with tribes over certain conditions governing casinos with Class III gaming - which basically means casinos with Las Vegas-style slot machines.

There is no such requirement for casinos with Class II gaming devices - machines that are patterned off the concept of a bingo game. Today’s Class II machines resemble bingo in the same way that a Revolutionary War-era musket resembles a modern surface-to-air missile. Both have the same basic function of launching projectiles, but technological advances have obliterated any other similarities.

A Class II device looks like a slot machine, feels like a slot machine and acts like a slot machine. It draws the equivalent of bingo numbers at the speed of light, interconnects thousands of players, and features the equivalent of spinning, flashing, mesmerizing bingo cards that are dead ringers for slot machines.

In fact, the cashless Class II machines with high-tech electronics and eye-catching graphics became so appealing that the casino industry was forced to shift to a new generation of slot machines to match their appeal and efficiency.

It would likely take all of about 60 days for the North Fork Rancheria to get National Indian Gaming Commission permission to open a Class II casino.

If Proposition 48 fails and the compact is rejected, the tribe could also petition the secretary of Interior for federal permission to open a Class III casino. The federal law requires states to negotiate tribal compacts in good faith; reneging on a signed compact would seem to be the definition of bad faith.

This is a path that’s already been taken in California.

Last year, the Rincon Band of Luiseno Indians received federal approval of its compact after the federal courts ruled that former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had negotiated in bad faith and Brown could not agree to a new state compact before a court-imposed deadline expired.

If Proposition 48 fails, it might take the North Fork Rancheria a year or more to get federal approval for a Class III casino. So one possible course for the tribe would be to open a Class II facility and then convert later to Class III.

One way or another, there will be a casino there.

Timm Herdt is a columnist for the Ventura County Star.