Lowell Cohn: Giants could be in trouble if Madison Bumgarner is hurting

The truth about pitchers is they come with expiration dates. All of them. Is Madison Bumgarner nearing his? Or beginning to near his?|

VETERAN PRESENCE

A look at the Giants' projected starting rotation, with age, career innings pitched and innings pitched per season:

MADISON BUMGARNER

Age: 26

Career IP: 1,171

IP/season: 167

JOHNNY CUETO

Age: 30

Career IP: 1,4201/3

IP/season: 1781/3

JEFF SAMARDZIJA

Age: 31

Career IP: 9912/3

IP/season: 1242/3

JAKE PEAVY

Age: 34

Career IP: 2,2581/3

IP/season: 1611/3

MATT CAIN

Age: 31

Career IP: 1,872

IP/season: 170

Ever hear of “neuroma?”

Not me, I never heard of it. It’s that thingy - no big deal, really - that’s been hurting Madison Bumgarner on toe joints of his left foot. Been hurting for a while now. Nerve damage.

But, really, don’t be alarmed even though, as a lefty, Bumgarner pushes off with his left foot, pushes off on every single pitch. Everything is under control. Got a cortisone shot because that foot can hurt. He swore to reporters it’s no big deal.

So no need to memorize the word neuroma because MadBum swears it’s a bunch of bologna.

Same goes for the sore rib cage. That’s right, sore rib cage. He’ll miss a start or two in Cactus League. No big deal, that fact right there. It’s just Cactus League, and Bumgarner told reporters he could pitch if it were the regular season.

All this is reassuring. Bumgarner isn’t pitching but he could pitch.

Do you feel reassured? I mean, pitchers pitch. They don’t talk about pitching. Or explain they could pitch even though they’re not pitching.

Look at Bumgarner’s baseball card. He’s only 26 - still a kid. But he’s thrown a ton of innings. And that doesn’t even count what he did in the postseason a couple of years ago - carried the team with his left arm. He has pitched more than 200 innings each of the past five seasons. Threw lots of pitches - all those strikeouts require high-pitch counts. Strikeouts are not as forgiving as a groundout to short on a ball-one count. See you later and grab some pine, meat.

It’s possible Bumgarner’s arm is older than 26 - not to mention his nervy toes and aching ribcage. No one knows for sure, but what’s going on with him is worrisome. Call it the “life” part of baseball.

The Giants are all set with their starting rotation - Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans did a beautiful job of reconstructing it. But Sabean and Evans can’t control life, the injuries that intrude on ball all the time. Have intruded on Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence and a thousand other guys. Life refuses to sit quietly in the corner.

The truth about pitchers is they come with expiration dates. All of them. Is Bumgarner nearing his? Or beginning to near his?

When you think of it, the Giants rotation is so full of experience - that’s a good thing. But it has built-in risks, also related to experience. Most of the protagonists are 30 or older. Most have thrown many innings. Is life getting in the way?

Like Johnny Cueto, the crown jewel of the Giants’ offseason acquisitions. In 2014 when he won 20 games, he threw 243.2 innings. Most in the National League. A load. Did that affect him?

Heck, yeah. The next season - last season - he got traded, had a losing record. So, he comes to the Giants with two serious questions. Like how good is he? Is he what he used to be?

And there’s something else. Let’s say Bumgarner misses regular-season time - real time - with his toes or his ribs or something else. Well, Cueto becomes the No. 1 guy, pitches against Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Those kinds of guys. No. 1 guys.

It says here Cueto is better against No. 2 starters than the Kershaw-Greinkes. The Giants sure think so. In pitching it’s matchups, matchups, matchups. And Bumgarner, as we knew him, is a great matchup against any No. 1 starter in the world. Cueto not so much.

Let’s leave Johnny at No. 2, where he feels comfortable, and move on.

Jeff Samardzija is 31. Had losing records the past four seasons. Gave up the most hits in the majors last season - 228. He’s probably safe as the No. 3 starter - probably. The Giants don’t want to elevate him to No. 2 if the Bumgarner body goes into complain mode.

You see where all this is going. Jake Peavy, 34, is a perfect No. 4 starter. Matt Cain would be good at No. 5, if he actually can make his first start of the regular season - if he actually is healthy. Cain is another example of the possible expiration date looming. He’s only 31. Not what you’d call aged. But he pitched 200 or more innings six seasons in a row.

Hey, he’s a horse, so what’s the problem? Hey, he’s a thoroughbred like MadBum.

Here’s an impolite question: With MadBum’s five seasons in a row pitching more than 200 innings, is he approaching Cain territory?

Back to Cain, who’s definitely in Cain territory. After he won 16 games in 2012 - the last time he threw more than 200 innings - he’s had three losing seasons in a row and has mostly been a part-time practitioner of his craft. Maybe his body is giving out. Certainly a reasonable hypothesis.

And it means the Giants have everything figured out on paper, did all they could to win their division this season. Get credit for an active, creative offseason. It’s just that the paper part of baseball has certain limits. Finally has to answer to the “life” part of the game.

Life gets the final word. Always.

For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular, go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.

VETERAN PRESENCE

A look at the Giants' projected starting rotation, with age, career innings pitched and innings pitched per season:

MADISON BUMGARNER

Age: 26

Career IP: 1,171

IP/season: 167

JOHNNY CUETO

Age: 30

Career IP: 1,4201/3

IP/season: 1781/3

JEFF SAMARDZIJA

Age: 31

Career IP: 9912/3

IP/season: 1242/3

JAKE PEAVY

Age: 34

Career IP: 2,2581/3

IP/season: 1611/3

MATT CAIN

Age: 31

Career IP: 1,872

IP/season: 170

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