49ers preview: Forget about playoffs

Playoffs?!

As Jim Mora once said, “Don't talk about playoffs.” The 49ers aren't even thinking playoffs. They are thinking rebuilding.

Here are five things you need to know about the Niners as they begin to rebuild.

Run game will be a strength

They may not win more than a few games next season, but Chip Kelly will create a running game he can build around for the future. That's how Kelly stays in business. He's a run-game savant.

His first season coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, he created a run game that ranked first in the NFL in yards and second in touchdowns. His second season coaching the Eagles, his run game ranked ninth in yards and fifth in touchdowns. And his third season in Philly, his run game ranked 14th in yards and 10th in touchdowns. That was respectable even though the Eagles had a new running back, DeMarco Murray, who didn't fit Kelly's offense. Things could be different with Carlos Hyde.

Kelly's offense is a shotgun offense. The quarterback lines up 5 yards behind the center while the running back lines up 6-1/2 yards behind one of the guards. During a run play, the center snaps the ball to the quarterback, and the running back comes across the backfield to receive the handoff. He actually runs parallel to the line of scrimmage and crosses the face of the quarterback before quickly cutting up-field and looking for a hole.

Murray averaged only 3.6 yards per carry from the shotgun last year. He is not a shotgun runner. He's a traditional runner, who averages a whopping 4.8 yards per carry when he lines up 7-1/2 yards deep in single-back or I-formations and the quarterback is under center.

Runs from traditional, under-center formations are far different from runs from the shotgun. Different cuts, different reads, different blocking schemes, different timing. Things happen quicker in the shotgun because the running back is a yard closer to the line of scrimmage. When the quarterback is under center, the running back has more time to find a hole and build momentum before he hits the line of scrimmage.

Great running backs can flourish from shotgun or traditional formations, but most excel at only one or the other. Luckily for Kelly, Hyde excels from the shotgun. Averages 5.3 yards per carry from those formations and only 3.1 yards per carry from all others.

Why is Hyde so good from the shotgun? He spent his entire college career there, repeating those runs and seeing those blocking schemes from the same perspective over and over until they became second nature. He and Kelly are a perfect match.

Run defense remains a major liability

Last season, the 49ers defense allowed 2,020 rushing yards (fourth most in the NFL) and 20 rushing touchdowns (tied for the most in the league). This season, the Niners' run defense could be even worse.

Their best run-stuffing defensive lineman, Ian Williams, who started 16 games at nose tackle last season, is injured and probably won't participate in training camp or the preseason. He may even start the regular season on the reserve/non-football injury list, in which case he would miss the first six games.

Williams signed a five-year, $27.5 million contract extension with the Niners this offseason, then broke his ankle and failed a physical with team doctors. Then he underwent more than one ankle surgery and the Niners changed his deal to a one-year contract. Rough break.

Williams spent OTAs and minicamp rehabbing in the 49ers' weight room while wearing a protective boot on his foot. He probably will perform the same routine during training camp.

Glenn Dorsey, the team's second-best run-stuffing defensive lineman, probably will join Williams in the weight room. Dorsey tore his ACL on Nov. 22 and he turns 31 on Aug. 1. At his age, he probably will need a full year to rehab his surgically-repaired knee.

Without Dorsey and Williams to start the season, the 49ers will have to play Mike Purcell and Tony Jerod-Eddie, who combined have started eight games in the NFL. Or, the Niners can start DeForest Buckner, a rookie, or Arik Armstead, a second-year player who was a liability against the run as a rookie.

Don't be surprised if the Niners' run defense gives up more than 25 touchdowns.

Replacing Lynch a difficult task

The NFL recently suspended Aaron Lynch four games for violating the NFL Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse. Lynch is the 49ers' best outside linebacker, best pass rusher and one of their best run defenders. As football coaches say, he “sets the edge,” meaning he forces running backs to go up the middle, doesn't let them escape around the outside.

The coaching staff has to find an outside linebacker who can replace Lynch both as an edge-setter and a pass rusher. Second-year outside linebacker Eli Harold is the obvious choice. The Niners spent a third-round pick on him last year, and he's their most athletic linebacker, capable of covering both tight ends and running backs. But he couldn't set the edge last season, and he wasn't an edge-setter in college, either. He probably won't help the run defense.

The coaching staff may choose to replace Lynch with someone other than an outside linebacker. During minicamp, coaches frequently played Armstead, a 6-foot-8, 300-pound defensive tackle, at Lynch's position - left outside linebacker. And Armstead seemed dominant at this spot. He set the edge extremely well.

Outside linebacker may be Armstead's best position. When he plays his natural position - defensive tackle - he's not effective against the run. Interior offensive lineman hit him from the side, attack his long legs and push him out of the play. Moving Armstead away from the interior and toward the edge would protect his legs on run plays and help him be an excellent overall player instead of a pass-rush specialist.

Lynch's suspension should allow Armstead to unlock his full potential.

GM Baalke might be on the hot seat

In 2013, Baalke spent a second-round draft pick on defensive tackle Tank Carradine, who had a torn ACL. These days he's a backup outside linebacker who has four sacks in his career.

In 2014, Baalke spent a third-round pick on guard Brandon Thomas, who had a torn ACL. These days he's a backup guard who never has played in a regular-season game.

In 2015, Baalke spent a fourth-round pick on wide receiver DeAndre Smelter, who had a torn ACL. These days he's a backup who missed his entire rookie season as well as most of this offseason's OTAs and minicamp.

In the most recent draft, Baalke spent a third-round pick on cornerback Will Redmond, who has a torn ACL. These days he still is rehabbing. The night after Baalke picked Redmond, a reporter asked when Redmond would be healthy. “Very comfortable with where he's at,” Baalke assured the reporter, “and very comfortable that he'll be ready to go come training camp.”

If Redmond, in fact, is not ready to go come training camp or come regular season, Baalke could get fired. Especially if the Niners have a losing season. They may blame Baalke and his obsession with the halt and lame.

No starting job guarantee for Gabbert

The format of training camp favors Gabbert.

Training camp involves very little hitting and almost zero full-speed collisions, especially during 11-on-11 team scrimmages. Most of the time, players wear shorts, a shirt and a helmet to protect their noggins. That's it.

Without pads and big collisions, teams can't really work on the run game. It's much easier for them to work on passing. Practices resemble flag football.

Gabbert is better at flag football than Kaepernick. Gabbert is the more accurate thrower and he has better chemistry with the Niners' receivers because he played with them all offseason while Kaepernick rehabbed from offseason surgery.

Kelly's passing game requires chemistry between the quarterback and his receivers. Kelly loves using “option,” “choice” and “dodge” routes, all of which allow the primary receiver to choose where to go instead of instructing him where to go.

Gabbert has a good feel for the receivers' tendencies, meaning he may shine during training camp. But training camp won't be the primary test. The quarterback who plays better during the preseason probably will win the competition. And the preseason may favor Kaepernick.

That's because the preseason is real football, or close to real. It's the time when the Niners will work on their run game, which, as you recall, should be the strength of their team. And Kaepernick may enhance the run game. He is an elite runner. Gabbert can't compare.

Don't put too much stock in early reports from training camp. This quarterback race may come down to the final turn.