Lowell Cohn: Only one thing Chip Kelly has to do for 49ers this season

You can’t judge Chip Kelly on wins.

Not in the upcoming season. Not fair. He won’t win lots of games.

A coach - even a great coach - needs players. Kelly does not have players, certainly not enough good ones. Think of Bill Walsh. First season in San Francisco, 1979, he went 2-14. People wondered if he was competent. He himself wondered if he was competent and privately told friends he might flop.

Two seasons later, he won the Super Bowl. It had something to do with a quarterback named Montana. It also had something to do with a defense, something Walsh didn’t have but finally got.

Same thing with Jimmy Johnson, another legendary head coach. Went 1-15 his first season in Dallas - 1989. Three seasons later, 1992, he won the Super Bowl. Repeated a Super Bowl win the season after that.

A coach needs players.

It doesn’t mean Kelly gets a pass because he doesn’t have players. No one gets a pass in football or life. It means we don’t judge Kelly on his win-loss record. We judge him on other criteria.

Got that?

So, what do we judge Kelly on?

The upcoming season is about developing one good thing. Nothing more. Just one good thing. Show promise in a single area and build on that. Lay down one super track and add the other tracks later on - musically speaking. The season is about that. Find one good track.

Recall what Walsh did in 1979. He developed an elite passing game on a crummy team. The passing game ranked high. How high? It ranked third. A 2-14 team had the third-best passing game in the NFL.

Walsh gave the 49ers something to build on. Laid down a monster track. It’s like he laid down the basic track for “Like A Rolling Stone,” and soon, when Walsh added a defense, the Niners rolled.

It all was right there for everyone to see. Jerry Glanville saw it. During the 49ers’ 1981 Super Bowl season, Glanville, then the defensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons, told me he had studied Walsh’s offensive game plans in 1979.

He understood Walsh was doing something special. Was special. But Walsh didn’t have the players to win. Or the defense to win. What Glanville saw on the tape blew his mind. Soon, it blew the league’s mind. The basic track.

Kelly needs a track of his own. Needs to make a positive contribution to the 49ers, something to build on. Something to give hope. What is it?

It won’t be defense. You can forget that. Kelly is not a defensive coach. He works a defense so hard and so fast he’s lucky the players don’t hyperventilate or fall down in a swoon from sheer exhaustion.

The defense will come later. If it ever arrives.

It won’t be the passing game. Not with those two quarterbacks. And those receivers. The passing game will come later. If it ever arrives.

The something positive Kelly will deliver - if he delivers - is the running game. A top-10 running game. He needs to move in the right direction. Prove there is a direction. If he adds other aspects later on, then he will have a team.

He will base the running game on Carlos Hyde, talented for sure, but injury prone, and on a decent offensive line. The run game is something to build on. You have a run game and, eventually, you get a passing game. If you’re tricky enough, if the opposing defense is looking for the back or quarterback to run, you can pass. The run sets up the pass. Something positive to contribute even in a losing season. If you can’t run, defenses concentrate on your passing game and annihilate it.

Precedent exists for progress in the run game. Kelly teams ran well at Oregon and then at Philadelphia. So no one is making unreasonable demands on him in San Francisco.

Quick question. Cohn is being generous to Kelly. Why wasn’t he generous to Jim Tomsula?

Glad you asked.

We grade Kelly on where the bar is. Low. Tomsula was in an entirely different position. He was an extension of Jim Harbaugh. This we know.

He said he didn’t have to change anything except maybe simplify some stuff. He used Harbaugh’s systems. Kept them in place. Tomsula marketed himself as improving on the Harbaugh playbook. Although the idea of Tomsula marketing himself for anything other than Butcher of the Month is absurd.

Not that I have anything against butchers.

Unfortunately for Tomsula, we judged him against Harbaugh. High bar. He asked to be judged against Harbaugh. And wasn’t that a joke? This babbling incompetent representing the San Francisco 49ers.

We don’t judge Kelly against Harbaugh. Entirely different coaches. We judge Kelly against Kelly. Because he is changing everything. That’s his prerogative. It’s what the Niners brought him in for. He is taking the 49ers in a whole different direction and he’s saying his direction works.

That direction must show one positive element next season. Just one. If Kelly produces that, praise him. If Kelly can’t produce, he’s on the hot seat. We will ask, “What is your contribution to this franchise, Chip? Why are you here?” We will say, “Right away, Walsh made it clear his contribution was the passing game.”

Which means the standard of judgment for Kelly next season is not the 49ers’ record. Too simplistic. Too brutal. Unreasonable. But there is a standard.

Remember that, Chip. A clear standard exists and people are watching.

For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular, go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.