Lowell Cohn: Giants-Dodgers showdown all about avoiding wild card game

Bear jumps out of the forest, starts chasing two hikers. Both run for their lives. One stops to put on his running shoes. His friend says, “What are you thinking? You can’t outrun a bear.” Guy replies, “I don’t have to outrun the bear. I have to outrun you.”

Old joke. Eerily relevant to the Giants. They don’t have to outrun the Cubs or Nationals, or even the Cardinals or Marlins if it comes to that. They have to outrun the Dodgers. Pure and simple.

Outrun the Dodgers to win the National League West so they avoid the risky, chancy, fraught-with-danger Wild Card Game. Let the Dodgers fight the bear.

The Giants haven’t put on their running shoes, not yet. Time to lace them up. They seem to be playing better recently, but seeming isn’t doing. Since the All-Star break their record is 11-23, worst in the big leagues. They began hitting on their just-completed home stand. Still finished it 3-7.

The Bear is licking its lips.

This is where the Dodgers come in.

Like the Giants, the Dodgers are potential bear food. If the Giants can put a sliver of space between themselves and the Dodgers, the Giants win the division, and the Dodgers are the wild card. And the Giants can begin that process, begin sprinting for their lives with the upcoming three games in Los Angeles. Rest of the way, they play nine games against the Dodgers, division deciders.

Run, you Giants. Run.

That means the Giants, as bad as they’ve played, are exactly where they want to be. In perfect position. Everything in front of them for the taking.

If they can take it.

And they should take it. They really should.

Why?

Because the Dodgers are no big deal. If they were a big deal, they would have run away with the division. Long ago. Made this thing impossible for the Giants. But the Dodgers couldn’t do that, and now they’re in bear country.

Pitching matchups for the three-game series are interesting. Instructive. Revealing. Now that the Giants got Matt Cain out of the way and can start their good pitchers.

Game 1: Madison Bumgarner vs. Kenta Maeda. Wonderful matchup. Bumgarner is great and Maeda is very good. Bumgarner can shut down the Dodgers, but Maeda can shut down the off-and-on hitting Giants. Hard game to call. Edge to Giants just because of Madbum.

Game 2: Johnny Cueto vs. Rich Hill. Shouldn’t even be close. Cueto all the way. Nothing against Hill, who recharged his career with the A’s before they traded him to the Dodgers on Aug. 1. But he’s been fighting finger blisters and never has pitched for the Dodgers. Hasn’t pitched anywhere in a month. A miracle if he goes more than five innings in this game. Never was in Cueto’s class. Big Advantage Cueto and Giants.

Game 3: Matt Moore vs. TBD. Ordinarily, I’d go for any pitcher over Moore. Been a dud since becoming a Giant. Sorry. Can’t find the strike zone. Can’t win. But TBD, as in To Be Determined, is a bad sign for the Dodgers. Like they don’t know which pitcher to start. Like they have crummy options. Which is true. Advantage Giants by default, although ESPN says they’ll start Brett Anderson in Game 3.

Heaven help the Dodgers. They have no one better than Anderson in an important game, Anderson, coming off back surgery. Earned run average of 24.75. No misprint there. That’s not an ERA. It’s the price of a large meatball pizza, Anderson being the meatball.

Dodgers starting pitching is in chaos. Julio Urias won on Sunday. Pitched well. But he’s a 20-year-old rookie and the Dodgers, correctly, are concerned about his innings pitched. Don’t want to ruin his arm with too much work. His innings limit for the season is a secret, but writers who cover the club think he’s approaching it.

Scott Kazmir couldn’t throw three full innings against the Reds on Monday before getting yanked. He can pitch to a certain extent, but probably won’t appear in the Giants series. Brandon McCarthy is hurt. Hey, what’s with all these former A’s pitchers?

And the Dodgers don’t have Clayton Kershaw, herniated disk. He may or may not return by the end of the season. Which means the Dodgers aren’t the pitching dynamo they were last season with Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Dodgers starting pitching has weak spots, or non-spots. Whole different team over there.

This is the Giants’ time. If they can make it their time.

The Giants do not hit home runs. You saw how beautiful and powerful and definitive home runs can be, saw that watching Yoenis Cespedes ruin the Giants over the weekend. The Giants are a team that hits into the gaps, gets guys on base, movcs the line along, as they say.

The line broke down because Joe Panik and Hunter Pence got hurt. The Giants need every hitter to contribute. They are not a one-player-centric team, not even a Buster-Posey-centric team. He’s not that kind of power hitter. But now the line is back and the Giants can hit. Well, they should hit. If not, something is very wrong.

Their pitching is not as good as you think - although it’s good enough to beat the Dodgers in this series, probably. After Bumgarner and Cueto things get murky.

We know about Moore, barely favored over TBD. Jeff Samardzija did beautifully on Sunday. But he lost. He pitches well when he pitches from the windup. Put him in the stretch, his motion goes wacky and he gives up that game-winning, two-run homer to Cespedes.

How about the Giants fifth starter? Not really an issue against the Dodgers, but an issue long term. Do they even have a fifth starter? The Giants say they’ll use Jake Peavy in Matt Cain’s spot until Cain’s back gets better - if it ever was hurt. Good luck. Peavy, nice man, is past his time. Don’t be surprised if the Giants put him on the disabled list before the season ends. Bad back or something.

And Cain never can and never will consistently find his release point again. That’s what we see. Not that Cain matters in the upcoming series.

What matters is this: The Giants have a chance to make statement, to take first place, to prove their dominance over the Dodgers. Do it in the Dodgers park. Do it like their lives depend on it.

Run, you Giants. Run.

For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular, go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.