Analy favored to claim SCL football crown again

It's foolhardy to treat any prep sports race as a foregone conclusion. Strange things happen in high school games, and high school seasons, which are ruled by passion as much as by strategy or athletic talent.

And yet there's no way to get around it: As the 2016 football season kicks off, the Analy Tigers are prohibitive favorites to win the Sonoma County League title, just as they did in 2015, and 2014, and 2013, and 2012.

It isn't merely that the Tigers are four-time SCL champions. They have won 25 consecutive league games over that span, their last stumble a loss to Casa Grande on Oct. 21, 2011. Casa and Windsor fled the SCL for the North Bay League the following year, creating a football vacuum that Analy has expanded to fill.

There are a lot of factors worth watching in the SCL this season, but Analy's dominance is the backdrop.

Tigers on a tear

Last year around this time, Analy was pegged for a rebuilding year. The Tigers had lost their most dynamic players to graduation, including 2014 All-Empire Offensive Player of the Year Ja'Narrick James. But the Sebastopol team somehow plugged the holes and went 13-1, losing only to Campolindo, 38-28, in the North Coast Section Division 3 championship game.

Analy should be able to build on that momentum this year. Of the six all-SCL first-team players returning from last year, five are Tigers: quarterback Jack Newman, running back Osiris Zamora, wide receiver Ross Simmons, defensive lineman Connor Kearney and defensive back Kyle Johnson. Throw in second-team defenders Jordan Parks and Nick Savage, and Analy has a wealth of experienced talent.

The key to the Tigers' quest to win a section title is Newman, the reigning All-Empire Offensive Player of the Year. As a junior he completed 298 passes (second in the state of California, among all divisions) for 4,051 yards (fourth) and 53 touchdowns (first), with just seven interceptions. Newman set Analy single-season records for attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns, and single-game marks for completions (40), attempts (61), yards (505) and touchdowns (six, twice).

He's a student of the game who is still working under highly regarded offensive coordinator Keith Simons, and he seems poised for another huge year.

“Jack's one of those kids, success won't go to his head,” Analy head coach Daniel Bourdon said. “He's working as hard as he did as a sophomore, or as a junior when he came up to run the offense.”

Bourdon isn't as certain about his defense. He has a lot of new starters on that side of the ball.

“We lost a lot of guys on defense,” he said. “I think that's where most of the question marks are. We run a lot of formations with five linebackers, and we lost four of five linebackers.”

Transition game, part 1

Piner had a good season in 2015, going 6-5 overall and 4-2 in the SCL, and playing second-place Petaluma very close. There is change at the westside Santa Rosa school, though. Last year's coach, John Antonio, left to take an assistant's position at Casa Grande.

The good news is that the new guy isn't so new. Tom Harris, Antonio's offensive coordinator a year ago, has assumed command. Harris knows his players well, and he's eager to get rolling.

“I learned so much from coaching with John. I was with him four years,” Harris said. “I learned a lot from him on how to run a program, and I still lean on it. So that's probably not gonna change much. As far as offense and defense, it'll be really similar. We have the same defensive coordinator as last year (Anthony D'Amico). In fact, most of our coaches are back.”

Harris feels very good about his speed positions. He has a lot of quickness at receiver with James Currier, Skyler Ito-Lutz, Angelo Giannavola and Ronnell Williams, and Ito-Lutz and Giannavola are superb in the defensive backfield, too. The challenge for the Prospectors is up front, where Harris expects to start four juniors and a sophomore on the offensive line.

“We're trying to get them up to varsity speed,” the coach said. “There's really no varsity experience on that line. But they're a hardworking group. I think it bodes really well for the future.”

Transition game, part 2

No coaching changes are in store for Petaluma, where Rick Krist is back to lead the Trojans after a breakthrough season. They went 5-1 in league play last year and came heart-wrenchingly close to toppling Analy, losing 42-36 on a last-second deep throw. Petaluma got a playoff win, too, beating Novato in the first round before losing another squeaker to Rancho Cotate.

Duplicating those achievements is going to be tough. The Trojans must begin again after losing 21 starters from last year's team. Krist emphasizes that many of his new starters got valuable playing time a year ago. Some of them are true newbies, though.

“Within two weeks of practicing, we've gotten a lot better,” Krist said last Saturday. “We definitely have a lot of room to grow, but the kids, I can't be disappointed in their effort. They're pulling together as a team, and they want to do well, which is nice. We went scouting today, and about 15 kids showed up to watch next week's opponent (Windsor).”

Krist said one of his early priorities is finding a couple of reliable defensive linemen to complement anchors Justen Santa (All-SCL as a junior last year) and Luke Haggard.

On the bright side, he's found his starting quarterback in junior Justin Wolbert, who headed the Petaluma JV team last year. Wolbert has big shoes to fill. Last year's quarterback, Brenden White, was a true leader. Wolbert's cut from a different cloth, but Krist likes his approach.

“Brenden was a guy who loved big plays,” Krist said. “This guy's more methodical. He makes good decisions, and he reads defenses really well, which is nice.

“He's a totally different personality. Brenden was a real high-energy guy. This guy's calm. He's real calm in the huddle, never too high or too low.”

Clouds on the horizon?

Excluding Analy, several coaches agree, the SCL should be very competitive from top to bottom this year.

“I think the league as a whole will probably be better,” Harris said. “That's just my observation from the summer passing league.”

Two schools, in particular, should be improved. One is Sonoma Valley, a team that has struggled through consecutive 3-7 seasons. The Dragons have an athletic quarterback in senior Ethan Koler, and a workhorse running back in Henry Darnell, who was second-team all-league as a sophomore last year.

“We're putting a lot of weight on his shoulders,” Sonoma coach Robert Midgley said of Darnell. “He has some skills.”

The other team that could make more noise in 2016 is El Molino.

“I know El Mo had a good JV team last year that did a lot of good things,” Krist said. “They're well coached throughout the program. El Mo is a team that always comes out with a lot of fight. I believe they could shock anybody, I really do.”

If the present looks healthy, though, the future of the SCL is a little cloudy. As Analy has built a strong, self-sustaining program, smaller schools are finding it hard to keep their numbers up.

Healdsburg and Elsie Allen disbanded their JV teams this year, and Sonoma Valley canceled its freshman team when only 12 kids showed up.

Never give up

Winning a football game is always a big deal to a high school kid. But no one will appreciate their next victory more than the Elsie Allen Lobos. Elsie enters the 2016 season with an active 27-game losing streak, and has dropped an astounding 64 consecutive league games (in either the NBL or the SCL).

Madison Lott, who has done great things with the Lobos basketball team, is coaching the football squad this fall (it's his second stint in that capacity) after another coaching hire fell through.

Lott certainly has some good players to work with, including junior quarterback Erick Vargas and a couple of receivers/DBs, junior Alan Aguirre and sophomore Diego Mendoza.