Lowell Cohn: Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert and a very weird 49ers preseason

It’s all on the line for Colin Kaepernick. Either he wins the starting quarterback job beginning with the third exhibition game or he gets cut.

Just watch.

He’s in perfect position to grab the starter’s role even though he missed the first two games, even though his shoulder was tight and he couldn’t practice.

Why is he in perfect position?

Because Blaine Gabbert, who had zero competition in the first two games, could not win the competition. Did not do enough. Was not good enough. Fact.

In spite of everything, including his dislike for the 49ers - more on that in a moment - Kaepernick is in the driver’s seat, if you can believe it. He probably won’t start against the Packers, and even that benefits him. He’ll play against Green Bay’s backup defenders and he should do well - may do well. And then everything changes for him and Gabbert.

If he does well and if Gabbert doesn’t, Kaepernick almost certainly would start the fourth game. Sure, the fourth exhibition game is usually a walk-through, but Chip Kelly could actually ask Kaepernick to do serious things, serious quarterbacking. And if he performs well, Kaepernick could win the job almost by default.

It’s all up to Kaepernick. He has to give the Niners a reason to start him. And Kelly is giving Kaepernick a chance to give a reason.

Lots of “ifs” in this scenario. One thing is obvious. Kelly has not endorsed Gabbert. If Gabbert were good - instead of a mirage - Kelly would have anointed him long ago. The heck with the guy with the bum shoulder. The fact that Kelly has not anointed Gabbert shows Gabbert is not anoint-worthy. Shows that Kaepernick has a chance even though he hasn’t played.

What a strange group those 49ers are.

Or the Niners could cut Kaepernick. This is where the story gets interesting. This is why preseason 2016 is unlike most previous preseasons. What’s happening is kind of thrilling. So much at stake.

Say, for the sake of argument, Kaepernick does not rise to the occasion against the Packers. Say he throws late to receivers or deals a few picks after he stares down his primary receiver and the cornerback follows Kaepernick’s eyes for the easy interception. Say Kaepernick isn’t much better than Gabbert or is even worse. Just say.

Then the Niners cut him before the season starts.

Why?

They won’t keep him if he’s not the guy. Reason it through. Gabbert falls on his face the first four games of the season. The probable outcome. So, Kelly goes to Kaepernick, and Kaepernick plays and gets injured. Like he got injured last season. Well, if Kaepernick gets hurt and can’t pass his physical by a certain date, his contract becomes guaranteed for the 2017 season.

How much would he earn in 2017?

Almost $15 million.

Oh dear.

In your wildest imaginings, can you picture the Yorks paying that kind of dough for a so-so, often-hurt quarterback who’s made it clear he doesn’t want to be a 49er?

Actually, no.

Which means win the job or get cut, Colin.

It’s like the 49ers are telling Kelly that if Kaepernick is his guy, fine. But if Kaepernick is not Kelly’s guy, then Kaepernick is gone. The 49ers don’t want Kaepernick around if he loses out to Gabbert in the final two exhibition games. Too much money. Next year, they’d have exactly the same problem they have right now. Get rid of him.

At this minute, Kelly still doesn’t know who’s the guy. Or even if there is a guy. In his gut, he knows there isn’t.

Get a load of this dialogue between Kaepernick and the media the other day, provided by 49ers public relations.

Q: You said in early June you hadn’t had a chance to talk with Trent Baalke since you got back. We talked to Trent last week and he said you’d had a good conversation together a few weeks ago. What is your relationship like with the general manager?

KAEPERNICK: We have a business relationship. That’s the point that we’re at.

Q: You had a good conversation? Would you characterize that as accurate?

KAEPERNICK: Uh, we had a conversation.

An English teacher would ask this question. How would you characterize Kaepernick’s attitude in that snippet of dialogue? Please take a moment to think.

Fair to say Kaepernick’s attitude is blunt bordering on disrespectful. Anything else?

His attitude is careless bordering on reckless.

And there’s this. Kaepernick clearly doesn’t care what Baalke thinks of him. Kaepernick is announcing that. He may even want to offend Baalke.

Hmm.

Here’s a theory. Kaepernick’s money is guaranteed for this season whether or not he starts, whether or not he even plays. He’s in charge. Baalke is not in charge. Kaepernick is daring the Niners to cut him. Would love the Niners to cut him so he can go somewhere else.

And the Niners may just accommodate him.

One note about Baalke - and I am no defender of the GM. But it’s hard to understand Kaepernick’s animus toward him. Baalke allowed Kaepernick to seek trades in the offseason. Baalke didn’t try to screw Kaepernick out of this season’s salary - starting at almost a cool $12 million and escalating with bonuses. Baalke didn’t bench Kaepernick last season.

It’s intriguing when a player feels comfortable badmouthing an executive who was just doing his job. Tells you more about Kaepernick than Baalke.

And one other thing. This is about Kelly. The most relaxed football coach in the history of football coaches. Tells more jokes than Buddy Hackett. Life of the party.

Kelly has a clear strategy. Doesn’t want to louse up this quarterback situation by choosing too soon. By picking the wrong guy. If he picks Gabbert right now and Gabbert flops and Kaepernick comes in after four games and lights the world on fire, Kelly is an idiot.

He’s also an idiot if the scenario goes the other way - Gabbert takes over for Kaepernick after four games.

So, Kelly is waiting. Being noncommittal. Not choosing.

Adhering ruthlessly to his non-choosing. It is in Kelly’s self-interest not to endorse a bad quarterback.

Let it play out. These are not his guys, anyway. They are Baalke’s guys. If neither works out, it’s Trent’s fault, not Kelly’s.

Exhibition Game 3 coming up. Let the games begin.