Grant Cohn: Predictable play-calling dragging down 49ers offense

SANTA CLARA

I’m not saying Chip Kelly is worse than Jim Tomsula.

But I’m not saying Kelly is better than him, either. I assume Kelly is better, although so far the numbers don’t show that to be true.

After two games, the Niners’ record is 1-1, just like last season. They dominated their opponent in their home opener, just like last season, then gave up at least 43 points the following week on the road and lost, just like last season.

So how is Kelly’s team different than Tomsula’s?

On the surface, Kelly’s offense seems better. Under him, the Niners have scored 55 points in two games. Under Tomsula, they scored only 38 points the first two weeks last season. Advantage: Kelly.

Dig deeper, though, and you’ll find 34 of the 55 points the Niners have scored under Kelly have come off of six turnovers committed by two opponents. Those turnovers made the Niners’ offense seem better than it is.

The best way to judge offense is by yards, not points, which can be inflated by turnovers and starting field position. When it comes to moving the ball, the Niners’ offense under Kelly is averaging just 4.4 yards per play - second-lowest in the NFL. Only the Rams are worse. Last season the Niners’ offense averaged 5.4 yards per play through the first two games, and 5.0 yards per play for the entire season. Advantage: Tomsula.

Now let’s compare run games. Kelly is famous for his supposedly cutting-edge, up-tempo, spread-option ground attack. But through two games, Kelly’s offense is averaging only 3.2 yards per rush - tied for fifth-worst in the league. Last season the Niners averaged 4.9 yards per carry through the first two games, and 4.0 yards per carry for the entire season.

Advantage: Tomsula.

Remember, I’m not saying Kelly is worse than Tomsula. But I am saying Kelly is worse than you may realize. I’m also saying the foundation of his offensive scheme - his run game - is simple and predictable. Has tendencies even I can identify. I’ll list them.

Tendency No. 1: When Kelly calls a run, he calls the same play almost 75 percent of the time. That play is called “inside-zone-read,” and the back runs behind either the left or right guard.

Tendency No. 2: When Kelly calls a run with three receivers in the formation and a tight end lined up one step behind the line of scrimmage, that play is “inside-zone-read” 100 percent of the time.

Tendency No. 3: When Kelly calls a run for Carlos Hyde, that play is designed to go between the tackles almost 100 percent of the time. So far this season, Hyde has 37 carries, and only one was designed to go outside the tackles. He gained 5 yards on that play, which was an “outside-zone-read.” You would think Kelly would have called it more often for Hyde, but Kelly doesn’t adjust.

He sticks with his tendencies.

Take Sunday’s game against the Panthers. The Niners lost 46-27 and averaged just 2.5 yards per carry because Kelly’s run game didn’t work. He wanted to use Hyde between the tackles and Shaun Draughn outside the tackles, but Hyde averaged only 2.2 yards per carry on runs up the middle while Draughn averaged negative-4.0 yards per carry on runs to the outside.

The Panthers’ knew Kelly’s tendencies and shut down his game plan.

The Niners would have done much better against Carolina if Kelly simply had gone against his tendencies. He should have ran Draughn up the middle and Hyde around the outside. Draughn averaged 4.8 yards per carry up the middle in that game while Hyde averaged 5.0 yards per carry outside the tackles.

Jim Harbaugh once led the Niners to a victory agaubst the Packers in Green Bay doing what I just suggested. This was 2012. The Packers expected Frank Gore to run up the middle and Kendall Hunter to run outside the tackles, so the Niners made those two do the opposite. Gore ran outside the tackles, Hunter ran up the middle, the offense gained 186 yards on the ground and the team won 30-22.

That’s coaching.

I don’t know what to call what Kelly does. He uses the same runs every week all game whether they work or not. Anyone could do that. Tomsula could do that. I could do that.

I asked Kelly about his run game at his Monday press conference. “How do you counter when your base run game isn’t working?” I said.

“You’ve got to loosen them up a little bit with the passing game,” Kelly answered. “Maybe throw the ball a little bit more on first down.”

In other words, Kelly has no alternative run game he can turn to when his simple, predictable run game fails.

That’s coaching?

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the “Inside the 49ers” blog for The Press Democrat’s website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.