Lowell Cohn: Raiders flying high, despite the numbers

The Raiders don't add up.

Their record is 4-1, a gaudy record this time of year, good for first place in the AFC West. They are on a three-game winning streak. Heck of a winning streak.

So, those are two excellent sets of numbers: 4-1 and three.

But if you dig deeper into the Raiders' numbers - and for you non-stats people, I promise not to dig too deeply - well, if you dig deeper, the Raiders' basic numbers, especially on defense, do not support a 4-1 record, not to mention a three-game win streak.

The Raiders really don't add up. Their record defies traditional statistics and doesn't coincide with where a team should be in the standings. They are an enigma. A very good enigma.

Here's the deal.

An important number for a defense is yards allowed - how many yards the other team gains against your defense. Want to know where the Oakland Raiders rank in yards allowed to opponents? Try dead last in the entire NFL. They allow offenses to gain more yards than any team you can name, including the pitiful 49ers.

You want to hold your nose.

In the Raiders' first two games, a win and a loss, they allowed a total of - let me get out the calculator here - 1,035 yards. That number isn't merely large. It's obscene.

Here's another important number: points per game. Where do the Raiders rank in this category? The envelope, please.

Try 25th in the league. That's 25th out of 32 teams. A very bad ranking, which translates into the Raiders allowing the other guys an average of 27.4 points per game. The Raiders themselves average 28.4 points per game, Just one point better than their opponents. Too close for comfort. Oh, my.

You still with me? Well, get this factoid. Opponents have outgained the Raiders in all five games Oakland has played. You can look it up.

If I gave you the aforementioned Raiders stats but didn't tell you which team owned them, you'd guess it was some crummy bunch, certainly not a division leader. In this case, you'd be wrong. Which means the Raiders do not add up.

It's important to understand they have an excellent record, but easily could have not-such-an-excellent record.

They beat the Saints in Week 1 by making a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Make the two-point conversion, you win. Don't make it, you lose. The win made you love coach Jack Del Rio's guts and it sure was an exciting game. But the Raiders were on the verge.

They had to fight like hell to beat the Ravens in Week 4, pulled out the game with a touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree with 2:12 left. Another cliffhanger. Exciting but flirting with danger. The Raiders pattern.

And last week, they won because the Chargers loused up an easy field goal at the end. Would have tied the game.

Not to put down the Raiders. Not to put down their talent on offense or their daring. But fortune has smiled on them. And sometimes fortune will frown.

The Raiders have done many things well. Have suffered the fewest quarterback sacks in the league. Five. An un-Raider-like number. In the old days, the Al Davis days, it was bombs away for the Raiders. Al demanded multiple touchdown pass plays in every game plan. Just go for it, baby. That meant the quarterback held the ball while, say, Cliff Branch ran downfield a long way. And that led to sacks.

This new Raiders team isn't so Raiderish. Derek Carr gets the ball and lets that sucker fly.

Another number here. The Raiders' turnover differential is plus-seven. Oh, please, don't get sore at me for dropping differential on you. Think hard here. If you combine the number of times the Raiders gave up the ball to the other team with the number of times the Raiders took the ball away from the other team, the Raiders come out ahead. That's very good. Good enough for third-best differential in the league. Helps to explain their record - somewhat.

And there's something else. Make that someone else. Make that receiver Michael Crabtree. What a revelation he has been.

Crabtree and Amari Cooper are both doing very well, although Cooper is the glamour receiver, the big-name receiver. It's just that Crabtree catches the impact balls. Cooper catches the ball on first down - talking in generalities here. But when it's clutch, Carr goes to Crabtree for the game-determining catch. Crabtree cannot do all the things Cooper does. Is a master at catching the short stuff, the impact stuff.

What does all this mean for the Raiders against Kansas City?

It means the Chiefs, who beat the Raiders in both meetings last season, are capable of beating them Sunday. Doesn't mean the Chiefs will defeat the Raiders. But they can.

Why? Because the Chiefs are coming off a bye week and their coach, Andy Reid, is dynamite at preparing for opponents when he has extra time.

Because Reid's style is conducive to beating the Raiders.

Reid uses a methodical, meticulous, analytical offense. Is extremely conservative. Doesn't ask quarterback Alex Smith to do too much. Uses running backs as receivers more than most teams in the league. See Spencer Ware explode downfield after catching screens and flares. See linebackers flail in their pursuit of him.

Reid will force the Raiders defense to be extremely disciplined in pass coverage. Can the Raiders do that?

The Raiders may not get to Smith for sacks. He doesn't hold the ball long. Reid does not look for touchdowns - for the most part. He looks for first downs. Keeps the sticks moving downfield. Keeps the quarterback safe. Doesn't expose Smith to pressure. This is Bill Walsh football. Are the Raiders up to stopping this?

The Raiders must break the mold of how they play defensively, must get three-and-outs. Not allow Kansas City to establish a slow tempo, which would limit the number of Oakland's offensive plays.

If Oakland does not improve its defense, the chickens come home to roost, as they say. The Raiders have been winning recklessly. A team can play that way only so long in the NFL before reckless turns into wreck.

For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular, go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.