Five keys to watch in 49ers' matchup against Buccaneers

Will the 49ers play hard in their final home game before the bye week? Do the players still care about this season? Or have they already quit on head coach Chip Kelly?

These are the questions that will determine the outcome of Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers.

1. How well will the 49ers run the ball without Carlos Hyde?

Last season, Hyde played seven games and rushed for 470 yards before injuring his foot. He missed the rest of the year.

This season, Hyde played six games and rushed for 429 yards before injuring his shoulder. He will not play against the Bucs, although he says he’ll return after the bye week. We’ll see about that.

In the meantime, the 49ers have to figure out how to run the ball without Hyde. Their plan is to start second-year running back Mike Davis, who was fantastic during the preseason, but is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry during the regular season.

Davis’ backup, Shaun Draughn, is averaging a measly 2.1 yards per carry. Not much of an improvement over Davis.

The best replacement for Hyde might be veteran DuJuan Harris, who hasn’t played at all this season. But he averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the two games he played with the 49ers last season. He deserves another chance to play. Will the 49ers give it to him Sunday?

2. Will the 49ers’ run defense improve its gap integrity?

Most football pundits blame the 49ers’ bad run defense on the loss of inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman, who tore his Achilles’ tendon Week 4. Here’s the logic: Bowman was an All Pro last season, and his replacements - Michael Wilhoite, Nick Bellore and Gerald Hodges - are not good.

But Bowman’s season-ending injury is not the reason the 49ers’ run defense is so terrible. Bear with me here. The run defense was terrible before Bowman went down, and that’s because the defensive line could not maintain what coaches call “gap integrity.”

Take DeForest Buckner, the 49ers’ top draft pick this year. In the 49ers’ 3-4 base defense, he plays right defensive end - Justin Smith’s old position. Buckner’s assignments vary from play to play, but a lot of the time he’s responsible for the “B” gap on running plays.

That means Buckner is supposed to stop the running back if he runs between the left guard and the left tackle. To maintain “gap integrity,” Buckner is supposed to use his left shoulder to engage the left guard while keeping his right arm free to grab the running back if he comes through Buckner’s gap.

Buckner doesn’t do those things. Instead, he frequently uses his right shoulder to engage the guard, which enables that guard to push Buckner toward the center and out of the “B” gap. Once Buckner is pinned inside, the running back runs through a hole the size of the Grand Canyon.

When will Buckner and the rest of the defensive linemen learn to play the run correctly?

3. Will the Buccaneers let the 49ers’ run defense off the hook?

Run defense is the 49ers’ biggest weakness, and opposing teams have been attacking it relentlessly. During the 49ers’ current five-game losing streak, opponents have run the ball against San Francisco an average of 37.6 times per game. Last week, the Bills ran against the Niners 44 times. Those are big numbers, teams usually run 25 to 30 times per game.

The Bucs would be crazy not to attack the Niners the same way. But the Bucs’ head coach, Dirk Koetter, is obsessed with passing. The man is on a mission to prove he’s a passing-game guru like Sean Payton.

Koetter should abort that mission. Under him, the Bucs are 2-13 when they pass the ball more than they run it. And they’re 6-0 when they run more than they pass. If they run more than they pass against the Niners, the Bucs should win. Will Koetter suppress his pass-happy nature?

4. Will Chip Kelly tailor his passing game to suit Colin Kaepernick’s strengths?

On Thursday, Kelly discussed the area in which he wants Kaepernick to improve the most this week.

“I think for any quarterback you’re just looking for consistency,” Kelly said. “The chemistry or the relationship that’s where the receivers are, knowing where, as they come out of their break, where they’re going to be. Is one guy a little bit sharper out of his cut? Is one guy a little bit deeper out of his cut?”

Kelly is correct that Kaepernick has poor timing with his receivers. But Kaepernick always had poor timing with them. He doesn’t throw with anticipation. Never has. Never will.

Asking Kaepernick to develop timing in just one week is totally unrealistic. Instead, Kelly should build a passing game around Kaepernick’s strengths. A passing game that doesn’t require a lot of timing passes.

For example, Kelly should stop calling the “deep out.” That’s a tough pass which requires Kaepernick to hit a tiny target, the area over the receiver’s shoulder, before the receiver runs out of bounds. Requires timing and anticipation and accuracy. Good luck.

Better plays for Kaepernick are curl routes and comeback routes - plays which do not require anticipation. The receiver fakes like he’s running deep, then stops 12 yards downfield, turns around and runs two or three yards back to the quarterback. Once the receiver is open, the quarterback throws the ball.

Kaepernick can handle those plays. Will Kelly call them?

5. Will the 49ers compete all game, or will they quit during the third quarter?

The Niners have a pattern. They hang tough through the first half, and then they give away the game when the third quarter starts.

So far this season, the Niners have scored just 10 points in all their third quarters combined. That’s fewer than 1.7 points per third quarter. Will they score more than 1.7 points in the third quarter against the Bucs, or will the Niners fold at halftime?

Or has this team folded already? Are they merely going through the motions? The 49ers and Kelly have lots of questions to answer.

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the “Inside the 49ers” blog for The Press Democrat’s website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.