Lowell Cohn: Raiders can win on Sunday, but will they?

The Oakland Raiders, who may or may not be an elite team, should beat the Buccaneers in Tampa.

Should is different from will.

You can bet Raiders coach Jack Del Rio is using the “will” word, telling his guys they will beat the Bucs. It's Del Rio's job to go all-out with the will. But we can't help noticing a few things.

The Raiders have the worst defense in the NFL.

What does it mean to have the worst defense?

It means the Raiders have given up more yards than any team you can name, and that includes the heaven-help-us 49ers. That's a very bad stat for the Raiders. There's more. The Raiders have allowed more passing yards than any team you can name, and that includes the heaven-help-us 49ers, who actually aren't so bad in this category but are dreadful, anyway.

Here's one more stat. The Raiders rank 28th in rushing yards allowed. Bringing up the rear in this category at No. 32 are the heaven-help-us 49ers. So you can see the Raiders have a very bad defense, a low-rent defense in the 49ers neighborhood - both hang around Baltic and Oriental avenues, if you know what I mean.

It is a fact of football the Raiders cannot be a serious team over the long haul with that defense. They still should beat the Bucs. And here's why. Although the Bucs are not a bad team, they are not a particularly good team, either.

They have not won at home this season - and remember this is a home game for them. Their first-year coach, Dirk Koetter, is so freaked about losing at home he's asked home fans not to sell their tickets to Raiders fans. He doesn't want all those Raiders fans, dressed up as various characters, taking over the place.

And that's a fine and worthy sentiment for Koetter, but it shows he's not thinking about the game as he should be. Not thinking what his team should do on, say, third and long from its 20-yard line. He's thinking tickets. You can bet Del Rio doesn't spend a millisecond of his time thinking tickets.

Assess a demerit to the Tampa Bay coach.

Here's another possible demerit for the Tampa Bay coach. He is addicted to passing. Many young coaches suffer from the Hyper-Passing Syndrome, like to prove they are pass geniuses. You almost get the feeling they'd be OK losing if their passing game is brilliant and they get praised for it.

When Koetter passes more than he runs, the Bucs lose more than they win.

When they run more than they pass, as they did against the 49ers, they tend to win. So, Koetter has to frustrate his inner pass maniac against the Raiders, and run run run.

Say he's making small gains on run plays in the first quarter - two yards, three yards. He must stick with the run because larger gains will come.

This is basic football. This is the toughest thing as a playcaller, not to get frustrated with short running gains at first, not to go away from the game plan.

It's not clear Koetter has the required patience to do that against a good team like the Raiders, although he certainly did against a crummy team like the 49ers.

And even if Koetter runs, he's still got a problem. The Bucs are down to their No. 3 running back, Jacquizz Rodgers. He gained 154 yards against the 49ers and looked great. Praise him for that.

But Rodgers is not an every-down back. He's only 5-6. The Bucs want to use him as a complementary back, someone who does not run up the middle because he lacks the stature for the constant pounding. Think Darren Sproles. Rodgers is a specialist, does shifty nifty things that can work in the context of bigger backs. If the Raiders understand how Rodgers operates, that he won't run much between the tackles, they can stop him. This is a major key to the game.

Other factors favor the Raiders. Like the battle of the quarterbacks. Derek Carr, as you know, is a star in the making. Accurate thrower. Rocket arm. Courage like a commando. His biggest flaw - although “flaw” is an overstatement - is his demeanor at the beginning of games. He is revved up, over-amped, and he tends to play too fast and without composure.

As the game moves on, he becomes the Carr we admire.

Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston is a pleasure to watch. He eviscerated the Niners last Sunday - so do most quarterbacks. In his first game this season, a win against the Falcons, he threw four touchdown passes and his passer rating was 125.1.

Pretty hotsy-totsy.

It's just that in Game 2, he threw four picks and his passer rating was 39.2. So, he's an up-and-down quarterback - have you noticed Chip Kelly constantly uses the descriptive up-and-down?

Why is Winston up and down?

He believes in his arm. Throws into the tightest openings. And gets intercepted. He's still learning.

As bad as the Raiders' pass defense is - it's very bad - they should be able to rattle Winston.

Remember, should is different from will.

And there's this. The Raiders played in Jacksonville last Sunday. They did not fly home. They stayed in Florida, spent the week in Sarasota. Sure, that cuts down on the travel and adjusting to time zones and all that. But there's something more important going on. And this is interesting.

A team on its own in a foreign land tends to bond, bonds more than it does in training camp. It develops camaraderie.

What in the world does that mean?

It means the Raiders almost certainly look at each other as more than just players after their week in Sarasota. They have become people to each other, even friends. And in football, a war game, personal bonds - a sense of person-to-person obligation - really matter. And this could be a Raiders' strength.

All of the above means the Raiders should beat Tampa Bay.

The will is up to them.

For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular, go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.