Lowell Cohn: Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev a big fight like the old days

Andre Ward vs. Sergey Kovalev. Saturday night in Vegas. Big fight. Hardly any big fights anymore. Boxing now a niche sport.

It also happens to be my favorite sport. Nothing else even close. I miss covering the big fights in the big Vegas joints and talking to insiders, trying to get a clue, an edge for my prediction. Covering Mike Tyson and Evander Holyfield and Ray Leonard and Thomas Hearns, Roberto Duran, Marvin Hagler. A lost era.

Ward vs. Kovalev is a big fight in the old big-fight sense. It’s at 175 pounds - light heavyweight - to unify the title. Ward is the best boxer in that division. He would be the best boxer in the world if Floyd Mayweather didn’t exist.

And Kovalev is the best puncher in the light heavies. So, this is a classic clash of styles - I love writing those old boxing clichés - boxer vs. puncher.

Which approach prevails this time?

No approach prevails all the time. It’s an ongoing argument with endless outcomes. We are talking about Saturday night only.

And we are talking about Ward. I know him. We have been on television together. Before we went on, we sat in the Green Room chatting like two regular guys. Because Ward is a regular guy. Regular-sized ego. Doesn’t need to be treated like the star he is. Polite. Well-spoken. A good listener. Just a pleasure.

He’s also a pleasure to watch. He is a smart boxer who is always two or three moves ahead of his opponent. He is difficult to hit because when an opponent throws a punch thinking Ward will be there, Ward isn’t there anymore. And then Ward counter punches - very fast hands - and he hits the opponent precisely where the opponent is.

Ward is what you call a “technician.” He also is what you call a “cute” fighter because he is elusive and slick and makes the other guy look bad. Ward brings frustration into the ring - frustration for the opponent.

Kovalev is a different story. He comes straight at you. He wants to knock your head off - metaphorically speaking. Often, he does. He is a hard hitter. Bernard Hopkins, an all-time great middleweight who lost to Kovalev, said, “It’s scary for anyone to stand in front of him.” Hopkins, who is picking Kovalev in the fight, did not say that about Ward.

Kovalev also can box. This is what makes this boxer vs. puncher paradigm crude. He can’t box like Ward, but he can box. And his skills as a puncher and boxer make him a handful for any opponent. Even Ward.

So, imagine you and I are in a bar. Night before the fight. You say to me, “Who do you like?” That’s how boxing people say it - who do you like. And I take a gulp of whatever I’m drinking, and I get started.

I say I’ve watched Ward since he got started. Great boxer. Great counter puncher. Good kid. Hard to hit. I say he’s undefeated for a reason. Hard for anyone to lick this kid.

I say Ward came up as a super middleweight - 168-pound limit. I say I can’t stand those recently made up divisions. In my world, a bygone world, there were middleweights and light heavyweights with nothing shoe-horned in between.

But, OK, Ward was a natural super middle and now he’s moved up a division and that has repercussions.

I say the repercussions are standard. Seen it a million times. Guy moves up a division, guy who has a pretty good punch in his own division, doesn’t bring the punch with him to the heavier class. Guys at 175 not fazed by the wallop from a guy at 168. Or as boxing people say, a guy at 68, drop the one. Moving up poses a problem for the lighter guy. Ward.

Guy who’s a natural at 75 hits harder than the 68 guy is accustomed to. Can be daunting to the guy moving up. These are things Ward will face. And there’s more, I say.

Look at their records. Kovalev fought higher-quality opponents. This could make a difference. Kovalev never lost a fight. He has one draw. But he knocked out 84 percent of his opponents, Ward merely 50 percent. Big difference. Puncher’s difference.

I say Ward’s hand speed - essential to his game - has diminished as he’s put on weight. I say this is a worry. Could make it hard for Ward to win a decision. I say Ward looks good in Oakland, his backyard. But he loses that edge in Vegas.

I say Ward won a unanimous decision against the Cuban, Sullivan Barrera, last March in Oakland. Ward’s first fight at 75. I say Ward won easily but the bigger Barrera roughed him up, and afterward, according to someone who was there, Ward seemed nervous, agitated. Not used to getting roughed up. I say this could have given Ward doubt. One thing a fighter doesn’t need is doubt.

I say Kovalev is overflowing with confidence. I say he likes fighting more than Ward, likes the hit-and-get-hit part of it more. I say he’s too much for Ward. I say Kovalev knocks him out and Ward announces his retirement. I hope I’m wrong.

That’s what I say.

For more on the world of sports in general and the Bay Area in particular, go to the Cohn Zohn at cohn.blogs.pressdemocrat.com. You can reach Staff Columnist Lowell Cohn at lowell.cohn@pressdemocrat.com.