Grant Cohn: Tracing 49ers’ downfall to a fateful play in 2012 playoffs

Today we’re going to play the what-if game. First, some background:

Saturday, Jan. 14, 2012. The day the 49ers beat the New Orleans Saints 36-32 in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs. One of the greatest days in 49ers franchise history, and one of the darkest days as well.

You remember the big plays from that game. Like Saints running back Pierre Thomas catching the ball at the 49ers’ 5-yard line on the first drive of the game. Thomas turning up-field probably thinking he would score. Only Niners strong safety Donte Whitner between Thomas and the end zone. Then, Whitner lowering his helmet and knocking Thomas unconscious. The great Patrick Willis recovering the fumble as Thomas lay on the grass.

You Remember the 49ers taking an early 17-0 lead, then giving it away in the fourth quarter. Drew Brees throwing a 7-yard pass over the middle to Darren Sproles. Sproles juking Niners free safety Dashon Goldson and sprinting 37 yards to the end zone to give the Saints a one-point lead.

And you remember how the game ended. Alex Smith running a sweep around the left side of the 49ers’ offensive line for a 28-yard touchdown with 2:11 left. Then, Brees throwing a 66-yard touchdown pass to Saints tight end Jimmy Graham 41 seconds later. And then, Smith throwing the game-winning touchdown pass to his tight end, Vernon Davis. Vernon Post. You remember that play. You remember Davis running off the field crying. Running straight to his head coach, Jim Harbaugh. You remember that hug.

But you probably don’t remember the most important play from that game. The fateful play that doomed the 49ers franchise.

The play happened with 1:54 left in the third quarter. It was a pass from Smith to no one. The official description in the game notes read, “Pass incomplete short right to T. Ginn,” but that’s not all that happened. Let’s go back in time and relive the 49ers’ downfall.

It was second-and-10. Ted Ginn Jr. lined up in the slot on the right side of the 49ers’ formation next to Michael Crabtree, who lined up outside the numbers on the grass. Crabtree and Ginn Jr. were standing five, maybe six yards apart.

After the snap, both receivers ran five yards downfield. Then Crabtree cut to the inside, and Ginn Jr. cut to the outside. They crisscrossed. The plan was to make the cornerback covering Crabtree, Jabari Greer, run around Ginn Jr. so Crabtree would be open. Coaches call this play a “rub” route.

But, Ginn Jr. didn’t rub the cornerback - he ran straight into Greer and fell down. The officials penalized Ginn Jr. for offensive pass interference, which the Saints declined, and Ginn Jr. left the game with an injured knee. He never played another down that season.

Next game, well, you know what happened. The Niners lost 20-17 to the New York Giants in the NFC championship Game. Lost because Ginn Jr.’s backup, Kyle Williams, let a punt bounce off his right knee in the fourth quarter, and the Giants recovered the fumble. Then Williams fumbled another punt return in overtime, and the Giants recovered and kicked the game-winning field goal five plays later. Williams lost the game.

What if Ginn Jr. had played that day? What if he never ran into that cornerback in the Divisional Round? What if he didn’t injure his knee? What if he returned those punts in the NFC championship instead of Williams?

Now, let’s play the what-if game.

Ginn Jr. was one of the best punt-returners in the league. If he had been healthy for the NFC championship game against the Giants, he probably wouldn’t have fumbled and the Niners probably would have won. Meaning they would have gone to the Super Bowl.

And they would have faced the New England Patriots, who couldn’t stop the run that season. They allowed 4.6 yards per carry, which ranked ninth-worst in the NFL. Teams that couldn’t stop Frank Gore in 2011 couldn’t beat the 49ers.

The Patriots also couldn’t block both Justin Smith and Aldon Smith. We know that for a fact. Saw those two destroy New England’s offensive line the very next season in Foxborough up until Justin Smith injured his shoulder and had to leave the game.

What if the 49ers had won that Super Bowl against the Patriots, as I suspect they would have?

Harbaugh still would be the head coach. The Yorks would have had to give him the raise he wanted, the raise they denied him after he lost the Super Bowl to the Baltimore Ravens in 2013.

Alex Smith still would be the quarterback. Harbaugh couldn’t have justified benching a Super-Bowl-winning QB after suffering a concussion the next season.

Vic Fangio still would be the defensive coordinator.

Ed Donatell still would be the defensive backs’ coach.

Jim Tomsula still would be the defensive line coach.

Mike Solari still would be the offensive line coach.

Mike Iupati, Michael Crabtree and Frank Gore still would be 49ers.

Trent Baalke would have lost his power struggle with Harbaugh and probably would have gotten fired after the 2013 season.

Colin Kaepernick would be with some other team after having been the Niners’ backup quarterback for years.

Chip Kelly would be taking the year off after getting fired by the Philadelphia Eagles. He would not be in the NFL.

Levi’s Stadium would be packed every game.

Season-ticket holders wouldn’t regret having paid $20,000 for personal seat licenses, which currently are worth only $2,000 in some cases, because the Niners are an awful team and a national disgrace.

When you think about what the 49ers could be right now and what they have become, just remember one thing:

It’s all Ted Ginn Jr.’s fault. He should have run a better route.

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the “Inside the 49ers” blog for The Press Democrat’s website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.