Grant Cohn: Who’s going to win NFL conference championship games?

Let’s take a brief break from all the 49ers coach and GM hypotheticals. We can come back to that game later. For now, let’s focus on the real games we’ll watch this Sunday.

THE EARLY GAME - FALCONS vs. PACKERS.

Get ready for lots of points. Vegas oddsmakers think these teams will combine to score 61. I think they’ll score 86.

Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are the two of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. Both have led their teams to no fewer than 31 points in a game since Dec. 11.

Ryan is the more conventional quarterback. A pocket passer who also rolls out sometimes. Not a scrambler or a freelancer. Ryan follows the design of the play. And the Falcons’ play designer is top notch. We’re talking Kyle Shanahan - the best offensive coordinator in the league. Also the 49ers’ next head coach, we presume. Nothing is official yet. But I’m getting off topic. Back to the quarterbacks.

Ryan always was terrific. Now under Shanahan, Ryan is great. And as great as he is, Rodgers is even better. Rodgers can do everything Ryan does and more.

Rodgers and Ryan are equally great from the pocket. But when the pocket breaks down, Rodgers is brilliant. That’s the difference between them. Rodgers may be the most brilliant freelancer ever.

Against the Falcons, you may see plays where Rodgers slides around and avoids rushers for seven or eight seconds before he throws the ball. He’s like Steve Young in that way.

Here’s how Rodgers is different: After all that sliding and scrambling, he flicks his wrist and snaps a throw 30 or 40 yards downfield on a line. Young couldn’t do that. He didn’t have that quick release or that arm strength. Only Rodgers has it.

The only thing holding Rodgers back is his teammates. Many of the important ones are hurt. Jordy Nelson broke his ribs, Davante Adams sprained his ankle and Geronimo Allison pulled his hamstring. Those are the three of the Packers’ top wide receivers.

Two of the Packers’ top running backs are hurt as well. Eddie Lacy is on IR, and James Starks is questionable for Sunday’s game due to a concussion.

Rodgers’ best remaining weapons are a slot receiver (Randall Cobb), a tight end (Jared Cook) and a wide receiver who has been playing running back recently (Ty Montgomery).

Compare that arsenal to Matt Ryan’s. Ryan has three good receivers, including Julio Jones, who may be the best in the league. Ryan also has two good tight ends and two good running backs. No defense can stop all those players.

Especially the Packers’ defense. It ranked 22nd out of 32 teams during the regular season and has big problems at cornerback. One of the starters, Sam Shields, is on IR And his backup, Quentin Rollins, missed the past two games with a concussion. That means the Green Bay’s backup backup corner, LaDarius Gunter, may have to cover Julio Jones.

I’m picking the Falcons.

Final score prediction: Falcons 45, Packers 41.

THE LATE GAME - PATRIOTS vs. STEELERS.

Ben Roethlisberger will play the role of Matt Ryan - the great quarterback with great weapons. And Tom Brady will play the role of Aaron Rodgers - the even greater quarterback with limited weapons.

But this game will play out differently than the early one. This game will be a defensive struggle.

Roethlisberger and Brady aren’t hot like Rodgers and Ryan. Last week, Roethlisberger’s QB rating against the Chiefs was a meager 72.5. And Brady’s QB rating against the Texans was 68.6. Very un-Brady-like.

Brady was rusty, though. The Patriots were coming off a bye, and teams coming off bye weeks typically are rusty. I expect Brady will play better against the Steelers.

I don’t expect Roethlisberger will play better against the Patriots. I expect he’ll have another tough game.

Roethlisberger has to face Bill Belichick, the master of constructing defensive game plans which take away the opponent’s best weapons. And that means Belichick will shut down Roethlisbergers’ two best weapons - wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell.

Brown will be easier to shut down, even though he’s very good. Belichick will change up how he covers Brown, won’t show him the same few looks all game. This will frustrate Brown, an edgy player prone to frustration.

The tougher task will be stopping Bell, the best running back in the NFL.

Most running backs “hit the hole” as hard as they can. They make one cut and go. Bell doesn’t do that. He makes lots of cuts behind the line of scrimmage. When he gets a handoff, he stutters, pauses, slides and then accelerates. Runs with a completely different rhythm than other running backs.

If defenders converge to one spot, Bell will go the other way. He constantly searches for a crease, constantly searches for a defensive lineman to leave his assigned gap.

The key to stopping Bell is gap integrity. Defensive players have to stay where they’re supposed to be. Have to play with discipline. Can’t leave their gaps and try to chase Bell like they chase other running backs.

Belichick knows this. He knows how to coach gap integrity. He’ll have his defense ready for Bell.

I’m picking the Patriots.

Final score prediction: Patriots 24, Steelers 20.

Grant Cohn writes sports columns and the “Inside the 49ers” blog for The Press Democrat’s website. You can reach him at grantcohn@gmail.com.