Barber: Raiders' 2017 greatness is open to debate

The Raiders sent a powerful statement on kickoff weekend a year ago, winning at New Orleans 35-34 when head coach Jack Del Rio dialed up a dramatic 2-point conversion with 47 seconds left. It signaled the rebirth of Raiders football. The silver and black wound up making the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, and might have made some postseason noise, too, if quarterback Derek Carr hadn't fractured his tibia in Week 16.

This year, the expectations are even higher. But a few clouds are gathering at the periphery of Raider Nation. Can Del Rio's team take another step forward, or are we destined to witness a return to earth?

Here's my internal debate on the Raiders, who open at Tennessee Sunday.

PRO: I feel like this is almost too easy. Oakland went 12-4 last season. The franchise quarterback is 26. So is defensive end Khalil Mack, the best defender on the team - in fact, the best defender in the NFL. The top receiver, Amari Cooper, is 23. This group is headed to the AFC championship game. The only question is whether they can secure home-field advantage.

CON: You're building on a house of cards, though. That 12-4 record easily could have been 9-7.

PRO: You can say that about any team, any year. They won close games in 2016 because of the discipline and confidence Del Rio and his staff established.

CON: And because of a few big defensive plays that were pretty uncharacteristic of the way these guys played for 59 out of every 60 minutes, and because of a plus-16 turnover differential. It's a stat that tends to regress to the mean. And remember, the AFC West is loaded. The Raiders could be better than they were last year and still finish 10-6.

Or they could be worse than last year. Have you caught a glimpse of this defense?

PRO: Granted, this is not the second coming of Howie Long and Mike Haynes. But there is every reason to believe the defense can get better. Defensive end Mario Edwards is healthy, young guys like Karl Joseph and Justin Ellis should be ready to take a step forward, and everyone gets another year in the system of defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr.

CON: Like that's a good thing?

Norton's D ranked 26th in total yardage allowed last year, 24th in passing and 23rd in rushing. He had Mack, who gets out of bed each morning and stretches by tackling a quarterback, and still oversaw a unit that ranked last in the NFL in sacks. During the preseason, the first-team defense appeared to pick up right where it left off. Or maybe you're convinced the Rams' Jared Goff is the next Aaron Rodgers.

PRO: You know that basing predictions on preseason football is like basing college admissions on how early a kid takes her first step, right?

CON: It's not the preseason that worries me. It's the offseason. Reggie McKenzie is as much to blame for this as Ken Norton.

PRO: Hey! Reggie McKenzie is the reigning NFL executive of the year. He found Carr in the second round and bruising guard Gabe Jackson in the third. Plucked dynamic running back Jalen Richard as an undrafted free agent. Leave Reggie out of this!

CON: No one in the NFL gets a free ride for long. And McKenzie's moves in 2017, or non-moves, are curious. I mean, the Raiders' offense was stacked last year. So what did McKenzie do in free agency? Signed several more promising offensive players. It's almost like the guy forgot which side of the ball he played in the 1980s. The only defensive free agent of any substance was linebacker Jelani Jenkins. He didn't make the final roster.

PRO: Umm, you seem to be overlooking the Raiders' first three picks in the 2017 draft.

CON: Everyone is overlooking them.

The third-rounder, defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, will probably start against the Titans. But the second-rounder, safety Obi Melifonwu, is on injured reserve; the earliest he could see action is Week 9. The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that Melifonwu had knee surgery, though it's hard to say because Del Rio treats routine injury news like Cold War counter-intelligence. Meanwhile, Oakland's top pick, cornerback Gareon Conley, was able to elude his legal troubles but not the shin injury that he apparently didn't even know he had. Don't expect Conley to play in Week 1.

PRO: But only a crank would focus on the Raiders defense when this offense is on display. No one doubts Carr anymore. He's on the short list of NFL MVP candidates, and he has almost too many weapons to mentally process. Cooper and Michael Crabtree were already one of the top wide receiver duos in the league. Newcomer Jared Cook fronts a versatile group of tight ends. Marshawn Lynch, the pride of Oakland, looks ready to be the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. And his backups, Richard and DeAndre Washington, brim with big-play potential. You just can't cover all of them.

Even if the defense is terrible, the Raiders are going to win a lot of 45-41 games.

CON: You kicked your offensive coordinator to the curb, though.

PRO: Yes, Bill Musgrave is gone. But only because Del Rio knew someone would poach the real mastermind, Todd Downing, who was promoted from quarterbacks coach to coordinator.

CON: So why are the Raiders such unhappy campers?

PRO: Say what? Carr might be the smiliest guy on the planet.

CON: But his left tackle, Donald Penn, sat out all of training camp in a holdout for more money. He's back, but he never did get his cash. And Sebastian Janikowski, the placekicker since the fall of the Berlin Wall, went on injured reserve Saturday. You really want to drive this train out of the station with your blindside protection pissed off and someone named Giorgio Tavecchio booting the field goals?

PRO: Any hurt feelings will be smoothed over by a few victories. When the Raiders are winning, the Oakland Coliseum is one of the most vibrant sports venues in the country. And believe me, these guys are winning.

CON: Well, there's a flip side to that fan support. Team owner Mark Davis is in the process of wrenching the franchise out of Oakland, just like his old man did in 1981. The end of the NFL's second-longest playoff drought was enough to make loyalists forget the backdrop for a moment. But if the Raiders don't pile up some wins in September and October, the move to Las Vegas will be seen as the double-cross that it is. And the curtain will drop on this fairytale.

You can reach columnist Phil Barber at 707-521-5263 or phil.barber@pressdemocrat.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Skinny_Post.